World Population 2027: 8.37 Billion and India’s Widening Lead

Every year, the question “what will the world population be next year?” draws millions of searches, and for good reason. Population numbers shape everything from government budgets to business expansion plans to the price of groceries on a shelf. This guide breaks down what demographers and the United Nations currently project for the world population in 2027, why the number keeps climbing even as growth slows, and which countries and regions are driving the change.

A quick note on how to read this article: population figures for any future year are projections, not finalized counts. They are built from the United Nations World Population Prospects, the most authoritative demographic dataset in existence, refreshed every two years using the latest census data, birth and death registries, and migration records from nearly every country on Earth.

As newer data becomes available each year, these projections get revised, usually by small margins. This article is updated periodically to reflect the latest available estimates, so the core structure and methodology here will remain useful well beyond a single calendar year.

By the end of this guide, you will understand the projected global population total, how it breaks down by country and continent, what is driving growth in some regions while others shrink, and how to think critically about population projections in general, a skill that holds up no matter what year you are reading this in.

How Many People Will Be in the World Next Year

According to the United Nations World Population Prospects (2024 Revision, medium-fertility variant), the global population is projected to reach approximately 8.37 billion people. This represents an increase of roughly 70 to 75 million people compared to the prior year, consistent with the steady, if gradually slowing, growth pattern the world has followed for the past several decades.

This figure sits within a broader, well-established trajectory. The UN’s medium-variant projection, considered the most likely single scenario among the high, medium, and low variants it publishes, has a global population:

• Crossing 8.5 billion by around 2030
• Reaching roughly 9 billion by the mid-2030s
• Approaching 9.7 to 9.8 billion by 2050
• Peaking somewhere between 10.3 and 10.4 billion in the 2080s
• Beginning a slow decline after that peak, continuing through the end of the century

The reason this article focuses on “projected” rather than “final” numbers is structural, not a hedge. No population figure for a future year, or even the current year, is ever a literal headcount. All population statistics, including those reported by national governments, are modeled estimates based on the best available data. Understanding this distinction is the single most useful thing you can take from any population article, regardless of which year you’re reading it in.

Why Population Projections Differ Slightly Between Sources

If you compare population figures across different reputable websites, you will often notice they don’t match exactly. This is normal, not a sign that one source is wrong. A few factors explain the variation:

Different baseline datasets

Some trackers use the UN’s medium-variant projections directly. Others blend UN data with World Bank estimates, national statistical agency releases, or their own interpolation models.

Different update cycles

The UN refreshes its full World Population Prospects dataset roughly every two years. Independent trackers update their live counters continuously between those official releases, which can create small drifts from the underlying UN baseline.

Rounding and methodology choices

Some sources round to the nearest million, others carry full precision to the individual digit, which can create the illusion of more certainty than actually exists.

Variant selection

The UN itself publishes low, medium, and high-fertility variants. A source quoting the high-variant scenario will show meaningfully higher numbers than one using the medium variant, even though both are technically “UN projections.”

The practical takeaway: when you see a population figure for any given year, check whether it cites its source and methodology. A figure sourced to “UN WPP 2024 Revision, medium variant” is more trustworthy and reproducible than an unsourced number, regardless of which specific website is reporting it.

Global Growth Rate and What’s Driving It

The global population growth rate is projected to continue its multi-decade decline, settling at approximately 0.8% per year, down from a peak of nearly 2.1% in the mid-1960s. This slowdown is one of the most consistent and well-documented trends in modern demography, and it is expected to continue for the foreseeable future regardless of which specific year you’re checking this figure.

Three forces are driving the deceleration:

Falling fertility rates

The global average has dropped from roughly 5 children per woman in the 1960s to about 2.3 today, edging closer to the replacement level of 2.1. Fertility decline tends to follow a predictable pattern as countries develop economically, expand girls’ education, and improve access to family planning, so this trend is unlikely to reverse on a global scale even as individual countries see short-term fluctuations.

Population momentum

Even in countries where fertility has already dropped to or below replacement level, the population can keep growing for a generation or more. This happens because a large existing cohort of young people, born during a higher-fertility era, is still moving through their reproductive years. This lag effect means today’s growth is partly an echo of past fertility patterns, not just current birth rates.

Rising life expectancy

Global life expectancy at birth has climbed to roughly 73 years and continues rising, particularly in lower-income regions, catching up to global health standards. Longer lives add to the total population independent of birth rates.

These three forces interact differently across regions, which is why global averages mask enormous variation, a theme that runs through the rest of this guide.

Population by Region: Where Growth Is Concentrated

Asia remains the most populous continent, home to roughly 4.9 billion people, just under 59% of all humanity. But the more important story for understanding future decades is happening in Africa.

Africa is projected to be home to over 1.6 billion people, and it is, by a wide margin, the fastest-growing continent on Earth. Sub-Saharan Africa alone accounts for a large and growing share of the annual global population increase. Nine countries are expected to account for more than half of all global population growth between now and 2050: India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Indonesia, Egypt, and the United States. Five of those nine are in Africa.

The Americas, combined, are projected to hold just over 1 billion people, with growth concentrated in Latin America even as fertility rates there continue falling toward replacement level.

Europe continues a structural pattern of population stagnation and, in many countries, outright decline. Roughly two-thirds of European countries are expected to see their populations shrink between now and the end of the century, driven by sustained below-replacement fertility.

Southern Asia remains the single most densely populated sub-region in the world, home to over 2.1 billion people when India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and their neighbors are combined, more than a quarter of all humans on the planet living in this one sub-region alone.

This regional divergence, explosive growth in parts of Africa, plateau and gentle decline across East Asia and Europe, moderate growth in the Americas, is the defining demographic story of the current era and will likely remain so for several decades, making it a safe anchor point for any evergreen population content.

India, China, and the New Demographic Order

One of the most significant demographic shifts of the past few years was India overtaking China as the world’s most populous nation, a transition that occurred around 2023 and has continued since. India’s population is projected to be approximately 1.49 billion, compared to China’s roughly 1.41 billion, a gap of nearly 80 million people that is expected to widen in the coming years.

China’s population is now in structural decline, a direct legacy of decades of low fertility following its one-child policy era, combined with continued low birth rates even after that policy was relaxed and later abolished. Japan, South Korea, and several Eastern European nations face similar dynamics, aging populations, shrinking workforces, and growing pressure on pension and healthcare systems.

India, meanwhile, continues to add population each year, though its fertility rate has fallen close to replacement level nationally, with significant variation between states. India’s demographic profile, a large, relatively young population entering working age, is often cited as a potential long-term economic advantage, provided the country can generate enough jobs and infrastructure to absorb that workforce.

Looking further out, Nigeria is projected to eventually overtake the United States as the world’s third most populous country, a shift expected sometime in the coming decades as Nigeria’s young, fast-growing population continues expanding while U.S. growth remains comparatively modest and increasingly dependent on immigration.

The Countries Driving Most of the World’s Growth

A relatively small number of countries account for the majority of the global population increase each year. Understanding this concentration helps explain why global trends can feel disconnected from the experience of any single country; growth is not evenly distributed, it is heavily clustered.

The countries currently contributing the most to annual global population growth include India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Indonesia, Egypt, and the United States. Five of these nine are in Africa, underscoring the continent’s outsized role in shaping the next several decades of global demographic change.

At the other end of the spectrum, a growing number of countries are seeing population decline. Around 90 countries are expected to lose population between now and the end of the century, with roughly two-thirds of European nations among them. China, Japan, South Korea, Russia, Italy, and several Eastern European countries are already experiencing year-over-year population shrinkage.

Top 100 Countries by Projected Population in 2027

The table below shows the projected population for the top 100 countries, based on United Nations World Population Prospects (2024 Revision, medium-fertility variant). These figures represent the most authoritative publicly available demographic projections and will be periodically refreshed here as updated UN data becomes available.

Top 100 Countries by Population (Estimated Population based on the Current Trends and Growth Rate)

Rank	Country	Population (Rounded)
1	India	1.49 billion
2	China	1.41 billion
3	United States	351 million
4	Indonesia	290 million
5	Pakistan	264 million
6	Nigeria	247 million
7	Brazil	214 million
8	Bangladesh	180 million
9	Russia	143 million
10	Ethiopia	142 million
11	Mexico	134 million
12	Egypt	122 million
13	Japan	122 million
14	DR Congo	120 million
15	Philippines	119 million
16	Vietnam	103 million
17	Iran	94 million
18	Turkey	88 million
19	Germany	83 million
20	Tanzania	75 million
21	Thailand	71 million
22	United Kingdom	70 million
23	France	67 million
24	South Africa	66 million
25	Kenya	60 million
26	Italy	59 million
27	Myanmar	56 million
28	Sudan	55 million
29	Colombia	54 million
30	Uganda	54 million
31	South Korea	52 million
32	Iraq	49 million
33	Algeria	49 million
34	Spain	48 million
35	Afghanistan	46 million
36	Argentina	46 million
37	Yemen	44 million
38	Angola	41 million
39	Canada	41 million
40	Ukraine	39 million
41	Morocco	39 million
42	Uzbekistan	38 million
43	Poland	38 million
44	Mozambique	38 million
45	Malaysia	37 million
46	Ghana	36 million
47	Saudi Arabia	36 million
48	Peru	35 million
49	Madagascar	34 million
50	Côte d’Ivoire	34 million
51	Cameroon	31 million
52	Nepal	30 million
53	Niger	30 million
54	Venezuela	29 million
55	Australia	27 million
56	Syria	27 million
57	North Korea	27 million
58	Mali	27 million
59	Burkina Faso	25 million
60	Sri Lanka	23 million
61	Malawi	23 million
62	Zambia	23 million
63	Taiwan	23 million
64	Chad	22 million
65	Kazakhstan	21 million
66	Somalia	21 million
67	Chile	20 million
68	Senegal	20 million
69	Guatemala	19 million
70	Romania	19 million
71	Ecuador	19 million
72	Netherlands	19 million
73	Cambodia	18 million
74	Zimbabwe	18 million
75	Guinea	16 million
76	Benin	16 million
77	Rwanda	15 million
78	Burundi	15 million
79	Bolivia	13 million
80	South Sudan	13 million
81	Tunisia	12 million
82	Haiti	12 million
83	Jordan	12 million
84	Belgium	12 million
85	United Arab Emirates	12 million
86	Dominican Republic	12 million
87	Honduras	11 million
88	Tajikistan	11 million
89	Papua New Guinea	11 million
90	Cuba	11 million
91	Sweden	11 million
92	Azerbaijan	11 million
93	Czechia	11 million
94	Portugal	10 million
95	Togo	10 million
96	Greece	10 million
97	Israel	10 million
98	Hungary	10 million
99	Sierra Leone	9 million
100	Austria	9 million

Top 100 Cities by Population (Estimated Figures)

Rank	City	Country	Population (Rounded)
1	Tokyo	Japan	37 million
2	Delhi	India	36 million
3	Shanghai	China	31 million
4	Dhaka	Bangladesh	25 million
5	Cairo	Egypt	24 million
6	São Paulo	Brazil	23 million
7	Mexico City	Mexico	23 million
8	Beijing	China	23 million
9	Mumbai	India	23 million
10	Osaka	Japan	19 million
11	Kinshasa	DR Congo	19 million
12	Chongqing	China	19 million
13	Karachi	Pakistan	19 million
14	Lagos	Nigeria	18 million
15	Istanbul	Turkey	16 million
16	Kolkata	India	16 million
17	Buenos Aires	Argentina	16 million
18	Manila	Philippines	16 million
19	Lahore	Pakistan	15 million
20	Guangzhou	China	15 million
21	Tianjin	China	15 million
22	Bangalore	India	15 million
23	Rio de Janeiro	Brazil	14 million
24	Shenzhen	China	14 million
25	Moscow	Russia	13 million
26	Chennai	India	13 million
27	Bogotá	Colombia	12 million
28	Jakarta	Indonesia	12 million
29	Lima	Peru	12 million
30	Hyderabad	India	12 million
31	Bangkok	Thailand	12 million
32	Paris	France	11 million
33	Luanda	Angola	10 million
34	Nanjing	China	10 million
35	Chengdu	China	10 million
36	Ho Chi Minh City	Vietnam	10 million
37	Seoul	South Korea	10 million
38	London	United Kingdom	10 million
39	Tehran	Iran	10 million
40	Nagoya	Japan	9.5 million
41	Xi’an	China	9.4 million
42	Ahmedabad	India	9.3 million
43	Kuala Lumpur	Malaysia	9.2 million
44	Wuhan	China	9.1 million
45	Dar es Salaam	Tanzania	9 million
46	Surat	India	8.8 million
47	Suzhou	China	8.8 million
48	Hangzhou	China	8.7 million
49	Baghdad	Iraq	8.4 million
50	New York City	United States	8.3 million
51	Shenyang	China	8.1 million
52	Riyadh	Saudi Arabia	8.1 million
53	Foshan	China	7.9 million
54	Dongguan	China	7.9 million
55	Hong Kong	Hong Kong (China)	7.8 million
56	Pune	India	7.7 million
57	Harbin	China	7.2 million
58	Santiago	Chile	7 million
59	Khartoum	Sudan	7 million
60	Madrid	Spain	6.8 million
61	Johannesburg	South Africa	6.6 million
62	Toronto	Canada	6.6 million
63	Dalian	China	6.5 million
64	Belo Horizonte	Brazil	6.4 million
65	Qingdao	China	6.3 million
66	Zhengzhou	China	6.3 million
67	Abidjan	Côte d’Ivoire	6.3 million
68	Addis Ababa	Ethiopia	6.2 million
69	Singapore	Singapore	6.2 million
70	Jinan	China	6.2 million
71	Nairobi	Kenya	6 million
72	Alexandria	Egypt	5.9 million
73	Yangon	Myanmar	5.9 million
74	Chittagong	Bangladesh	5.8 million
75	Hanoi	Vietnam	5.8 million
76	Barcelona	Spain	5.8 million
77	Guadalajara	Mexico	5.7 million
78	Ankara	Turkey	5.6 million
79	Saint Petersburg	Russia	5.6 million
80	Melbourne	Australia	5.5 million
81	Fukuoka	Japan	5.5 million
82	Monterrey	Mexico	5.3 million
83	Sydney	Australia	5.3 million
84	Urumqi	China	5.2 million
85	Changsha	China	5.2 million
86	Cape Town	South Africa	5.1 million
87	Jeddah	Saudi Arabia	5.1 million
88	Kunming	China	5 million
89	Brasília	Brazil	5 million
90	Kabul	Afghanistan	5 million
91	Yaoundé	Cameroon	5 million
92	Changchun	China	5 million
93	Hefei	China	4.9 million
94	Ningbo	China	4.9 million
95	Shantou	China	4.8 million
96	Kano	Nigeria	4.8 million
97	Tel Aviv	Israel	4.6 million
98	Shijiazhuang	China	4.6 million
99	New Taipei	Taiwan	4.6 million
100	Kozhikode	India	4.5 million

Population by Continent (Estimated Figures)

Continent	Population (Rounded)	Share of the World
Asia	4.9 billion	~58%
Africa	1.6 billion	~19%
Europe	740 million	~9%
North America	600 million	~7%
South America	440 million	~5%
Oceania	46 million	<1%
Antarctica	No permanent population	—

Top 20 Highest Birth Rate Countries (Estimated Figures)

Measured by the Total Fertility Rate, the average number of children per woman

Rank	Country	Fertility Rate (Rounded)
1	Niger	6.0 children/woman
2	Chad	6.0 children/woman
3	Somalia	5.8 children/woman
4	DR Congo	5.8 children/woman
5	Central African Republic	5.5 children/woman
6	Mali	5.5 children/woman
7	Angola	5.0 children/woman
8	Nigeria	4.6 children/woman
9	Burundi	4.5 children/woman
10	South Sudan	4.4 children/woman
11	Uganda	4.3 children/woman
12	Benin	4.3 children/woman
13	Mozambique	4.2 children/woman
14	Burkina Faso	4.2 children/woman
15	Guinea	4.1 children/woman
16	Afghanistan	4.0 children/woman
17	Cameroon	4.0 children/woman
18	Sierra Leone	3.9 children/woman
19	Yemen	3.8 children/woman
20	Senegal	3.8 children/woman

Top 20 Lowest Birth Rate Countries (Estimated Figures)

Measured by the Total Fertility Rate, the average number of children per woman

Rank	Country	Fertility Rate (Rounded)
1	Macao (China)	0.7 children/woman
2	Hong Kong (China)	0.75 children/woman
3	South Korea	0.75 children/woman
4	Taiwan	0.85 children/woman
5	Singapore	0.95 children/woman
6	China	1.0 children/woman
7	Puerto Rico	1.0 children/woman
8	Ukraine	1.05 children/woman
9	Italy	1.2 children/woman
10	Spain	1.2 children/woman
11	Japan	1.2 children/woman
12	Greece	1.25 children/woman
13	Poland	1.25 children/woman
14	Malta	1.3 children/woman
15	Cyprus	1.3 children/woman
16	Bosnia and Herzegovina	1.3 children/woman
17	Thailand	1.3 children/woman
18	Canada	1.35 children/woman
19	Finland	1.35 children/woman
20	Portugal	1.35 children/woman

Note: All figures are rounded estimates intended for editorial and content use. Country-level fertility rates and population figures are sourced from UN World Population Prospects (2024 Revision) and UN World Urbanization Prospects. Figures will shift modestly with each new UN data revision; the recommended refresh cycle is annual.

Population Milestones to Watch

A handful of demographic milestones are useful anchor points for understanding where the world stands, regardless of which specific year you’re reading this:

India’s lead over China continues widening

The population gap between the two countries, roughly 80 million as of the latest projections, is expected to grow each year as India keeps adding population while China continues its decline.

The 9 billion threshold

After taking just 12 years to grow from 7 to 8 billion (reached in November 2022), the world is projected to take roughly 15 years to reach 9 billion, a clear signal of decelerating growth, expected sometime in the mid-2030s.

Peak population

Current projections place the global population peak somewhere between the mid-2060s and 2100, with the most likely scenario centered in the 2080s at around 10.3 to 10.4 billion people. The UN estimates an 80% probability that the global population will peak at some point this century, a notable shift from older projections that assumed continuous growth.

The shrinking-countries list keeps growing

Roughly 1 in 4 people today already live in a country where the population has already peaked and begun declining. This share is expected to keep climbing.

These milestones provide a stable narrative framework that holds up across multiple years of updates, making them a reliable anchor for evergreen demographic content.

How Reliable Are Multi-Year Population Projections?

Population projections, particularly the UN’s medium-variant estimates, have historically been quite accurate at the global level, typically within a percentage point or two of actual outcomes a decade or more out. This reliability comes from the fact that most of the people who will be alive in any given near-future year are already alive today, which dramatically narrows the range of plausible outcomes compared to, say, economic or financial forecasting.

That said, projections do get revised. The most recent UN revision actually lowered its long-term population estimates compared to a decade earlier, primarily because fertility rates in several of the world’s most populous countries fell faster than previously modeled. This is a useful reminder: even well-established projections are best understood as the most likely scenario among several plausible ones, not a fixed certainty.

For this reason, the most durable way to engage with population statistics is to understand the underlying drivers, fertility, mortality, migration, and momentum, rather than memorizing a single number that will shift slightly with each new data release.

Key Drivers Shaping Future Population Trends

A few structural forces will continue shaping global population numbers for years to come, regardless of the specific figures in any given annual update:

Continued fertility decline in developing economies

As more countries urbanize and expand access to education and healthcare, fertility rates in currently high-fertility regions are expected to keep falling, following the same pattern already seen across most of Asia and Latin America.

Aging populations in developed and middle-income countries

A growing share of countries, not just in Europe and East Asia but increasingly in Latin America and parts of Asia, are now grappling with shrinking working-age populations and rising elderly dependency ratios.

Africa’s demographic weight is increasing

With the highest fertility rates and youngest population structure of any region, Africa’s share of the global population is projected to keep rising substantially through the rest of the century.

Migration as a growth lever for low-fertility countries

Nations with below-replacement fertility increasingly rely on immigration to sustain population and labor force levels, a trend likely to intensify as more countries join the low-fertility category.

Conclusion

World population is projected to climb to roughly 8.37 billion, continuing a long-running pattern of growth that is real in absolute terms but steadily decelerating in percentage terms. India’s lead over China continues to widen, Africa remains the engine of most future global growth, and an increasing number of countries, particularly across Europe and East Asia, are already shrinking.

These underlying dynamics, falling fertility, population momentum, aging in wealthy nations, and rapid growth concentrated in a handful of developing countries, are unlikely to change dramatically from one year to the next. That structural stability is exactly what makes population trends so useful to understand deeply, rather than memorize as a single static number: the specific figures will update with each new UN revision, but the forces shaping them will remain recognizable for years to come.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the projected world population for next year?

Based on the latest UN World Population Prospects medium-variant projections, the global population is expected to reach approximately 8.37 billion, though this figure is refined periodically as newer data becomes available.

Which country has the largest population?

India holds the top position, with a projected population of roughly 1.49 billion, having overtaken China in 2023.

Is global population growth slowing down?

Yes. The annual growth rate has been declining for decades and currently sits at roughly 0.8%, down from a peak of over 2% in the mid-1960s.

When will the global population reach 9 billion?

Current projections place this milestone in the mid-2030s, roughly 15 years after the world passed 8 billion in November 2022.

Which continent is growing fastest?

Africa, by a substantial margin, is driven by the highest fertility rates and the youngest population structure of any region.

Will the world population ever start declining?

Yes, according to current UN projections. The global population is expected to peak sometime between the mid-2060s and 2100, most likely in the 2080s, before beginning a gradual decline.

Why do population figures vary between different websites?

Differences in baseline data sources, update timing, and which UN fertility variant (low, medium, or high) is used can all produce slightly different figures, even among reputable sources.

How accurate are population projections made years in advance?

Quite accurate at the global level, generally within a percentage point or two, because most people alive in any near-future year are already alive today. Country-level projections, especially for migration-dependent nations, carry somewhat more uncertainty.

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