USA Population 2029: The Year Older Americans Outnumber Children

The US population in 2029 carries a distinction none of the years around it share. According to the Census Bureau’s own middle-series demographic projections, 2029 is the year the number of Americans aged 65 and older is projected to overtake the number of Americans under 18, for the first time in the nation’s recorded history.

That single crossover, more than any headline population total, is what actually defines this year. This guide builds the full US Population 2029 picture around that fact: the national numbers, the demographic forces producing them, and complete data tables for every state, the largest counties, the top 100 cities, population density, and growth and decline trends.

As with any population figure for a current or near-future year, every number in this guide should be read as a well-sourced estimate rather than a literal headcount. The Congressional Budget Office, the U.S. Census Bureau, and independent trackers like Worldometer each build their projections using slightly different fertility, mortality, and immigration assumptions, which is why credible US Population 2029 estimates form a range rather than a single fixed digit.

The Headline Numbers

• Estimated Total Population: Current US Population 2029 projections cluster around 350 to 352 million people. The Congressional Budget Office’s January 2026 demographic outlook places the Social Security area population at approximately 349 million in 2026, growing at an average rate of roughly 0.3% annually through the rest of the decade, which puts the 2029 figure just above 352 million.
• Global Rank: The United States remains the third most populous country in the world, behind only India and China, a position it has held without interruption for decades.
• Growth Rate: Annual growth has slowed to approximately 0.3% to 0.5%, a meaningfully slower pace than the 0.8%-plus rates common a decade earlier, and the slowest sustained growth rate in modern U.S. history outside of the pandemic disruption.
• Growth Drivers: With the national fertility rate sitting at approximately 1.59 to 1.6 children per woman, well below the 2.1 replacement level, nearly all net population growth now comes from international migration. The Congressional Budget Office’s own analysis states plainly that population growth through 2029 depends on more people migrating into the country than leaving it, combined with births still modestly outnumbering deaths, a balance that is not expected to hold much longer.

Why This Specific Year Matters More Than the Number Suggests

Most annual population guides treat each year as functionally interchangeable, just a slightly larger number than the year before. The US Population 2029 breaks that pattern. According to Census Bureau projections published in its most recent national demographic outlook, 2029 is the year the share of the population aged 65 and older is projected to surpass the share under 18, a genuine first in American history. This is not a minor statistical footnote. It marks the formal arrival of a demographic structure the United States has never experienced before, one where older Americans outnumber children nationally rather than just in specific aging states or counties.

This crossover did not happen suddenly. It is the cumulative result of two long-running trends working together. First, the number of births has fallen sharply and steadily since peaking at an all-time high of roughly 4.3 million in 2007, a decline that began around the Great Recession and never meaningfully reversed. Second, the country’s age structure has been shifting upward for decades as life expectancy has climbed and the large Baby Boomer generation aged deeper into retirement. Those two forces converge, almost exactly, in 2029.

Immigration’s Shrinking Role, and Why That’s a Bigger Deal Than It Sounds

For most of the past two decades, immigration quietly did the heavy lifting for U.S. population growth while domestic attention focused elsewhere. That dynamic has shifted noticeably heading into 2029. Census Bureau estimates show the country received approximately 1.3 million immigrants in the year ending July 2025, already a decline of more than 50% from the highs of the early 2020s. The Bureau’s own projections anticipated that figure falling further still, to a few hundred thousand annually, which would represent the lowest immigration levels in over 60 years outside of the pandemic-era closures.

Why does this matter so much for the US Population 2029 specifically? Because immigration is no longer just one input among several, it has become the primary mechanism keeping the national population growing at all. Research from the Brennan Center for Justice found that 17 states, roughly a third of the country, already recorded more deaths than births in the most recent measured year, a sharp increase from just four states experiencing that pattern through the entire 2010s decade. In every one of those states, any population growth that did occur came entirely from migration, domestic relocation from other states, or international immigration, rather than from natural increase.

The practical implication: if immigration levels continue falling toward the lower end of recent projections, demographers expect the crossover point where national deaths exceed national births, a milestone separate from but related to the 65-versus-under-18 crossover, to arrive earlier than the late-2030s timeline the Census Bureau’s main series projection originally anticipated.

The Three-Number Snapshot

Metric	Figure
Total population	~350 to 352 million
Annual growth rate	~0.3% to 0.5%
Global population rank	3rd, behind India and China

Age Structure: The Crossover Year in Detail

The age structure shift defining the US Population 2029 shows up clearly once you break the population into its major brackets. The table below reflects the Census Bureau’s middle-series projection, the scenario the Bureau itself considers most likely.

Age Bracket	Approximate Share of Population
Under 18	~20.6%
18 to 64	~60.6%
65 and older	~20.8% (crosses above under-18 share around this year)

For context, the median age of the total U.S. population stood at 38.9 in 2022 and has continued climbing steadily since. Under the Census Bureau’s middle-series projection, that median age is expected to keep rising for the rest of the century, eventually reaching nearly 48 by 2100.

The number of Baby Boomers, who made up 37% of the U.S. population at their peak in 1964, has already fallen from a high of 79 million in 1999 to roughly 67 million today, and Pew Research projects that figure will drop to approximately 59 million by the 2030 census, even as the generation’s share of national attention, healthcare spending, and retirement system strain continues to grow disproportionately.

Sex Ratio

The national sex ratio remains close to balanced overall, with a slight male majority at birth and through younger age brackets, before shifting toward a clear female majority among the oldest Americans. This pattern is a direct consequence of the same age-structure dynamics described above: as the population aged 65 and older grows toward roughly a fifth of the total population, and as women in that age group continue to outlive men by several years on average, the overall national sex ratio gradually tilts further toward female in the upper age brackets even while staying balanced nationally.

Ethnic Composition

Group	Approximate Share
Non-Hispanic White	~56.7%
Hispanic or Latino (any race)	~19.4%
Black or African American	~13.6%
Asian American	~6.4%
Multiracial	~4.4%
American Indian / Alaska Native	~1.3%
Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander	~0.3%

The non-Hispanic White share has declined from close to 69% in 2000 to under 57% today, while Hispanic, Asian, and multiracial populations continue growing fastest in percentage terms.

Brookings Institution analysis of Census Bureau projection data makes an important point often missed in coverage of this trend: even under reduced immigration scenarios, the long-term shift toward greater racial and ethnic diversity does not reverse. Fertility and mortality patterns among existing population groups, not just new immigration, are themselves driving a substantial share of this ongoing demographic change.

Religious Affiliation

Affiliation	Approximate Share
Christian (all denominations)	~62% to 65%
— Protestant	~40%
— Catholic	~19%
— Other Christian	~3%
Religiously unaffiliated	~29%
Other religions (Jewish, Muslim, Buddhist, Hindu, etc.)	~6% to 7%

The religiously unaffiliated share grew rapidly for nearly two decades before plateauing in recent years, a trend several major survey organizations now describe as stabilizing rather than reversing.

Younger Americans remain considerably more likely than older generations to identify as unaffiliated, a generational gap that is expected to persist as younger cohorts age into the adult population over the coming years.

Life Expectancy

National life expectancy at birth sits at approximately 79.3 years according to Social Security Trustees’ estimates for this period, with the Census Bureau’s own projection running slightly higher at roughly 80.2 years.

Women average approximately 81.7 years, men approximately 76.8 years, a gap of roughly five years that has remained fairly stable across recent projection cycles. Life expectancy continues a gradual recovery following the sharp dip recorded during the early 2020s pandemic period, though the United States still trails most peer wealthy nations on this measure.

Literacy of the Population

Basic literacy in the United States remains above 99% by standard measures. The more revealing figure is functional literacy, the practical ability to interpret and apply written information in everyday situations like reading a prescription label or understanding a loan agreement.

National adult literacy assessments have repeatedly found that roughly one in five American adults struggles with more complex reading and numeracy tasks, a gap that correlates closely with income level, geography, and access to consistent quality education throughout childhood. This distinction between basic and functional literacy remains one of the most consistently underreported dimensions of the broader US Population 2029 picture.

Population by States in the USA (All 50 States Plus D.C., Rounded & Estimated Figures)

Rank	State	Population
1	California	39.7 million
2	Texas	32.0 million
3	Florida	23.9 million
4	New York	19.7 million
5	Pennsylvania	13.2 million
6	Illinois	12.6 million
7	Ohio	12.0 million
8	Georgia	11.7 million
9	North Carolina	11.5 million
10	Michigan	10.1 million
11	New Jersey	9.5 million
12	Virginia	9.1 million
13	Washington	8.2 million
14	Arizona	8.1 million
15	Tennessee	7.5 million
16	Massachusetts	7.25 million
17	Indiana	7.0 million
18	Maryland	6.35 million
19	Missouri	6.35 million
20	Wisconsin	6.05 million
21	Colorado	6.10 million
22	Minnesota	5.92 million
23	South Carolina	5.74 million
24	Alabama	5.25 million
25	Kentucky	4.63 million
26	Louisiana	4.62 million
27	Oregon	4.34 million
28	Oklahoma	4.21 million
29	Connecticut	3.72 million
30	Utah	3.67 million
31	Nevada	3.34 million
32	Iowa	3.27 million
33	Arkansas	3.13 million
34	Kansas	2.98 million
35	Mississippi	2.95 million
36	New Mexico	2.15 million
37	Idaho	2.15 million
38	Nebraska	2.03 million
39	West Virginia	1.74 million
40	Hawaii	1.44 million
41	New Hampshire	1.43 million
42	Maine	1.41 million
43	Montana	1.16 million
44	Rhode Island	1.10 million
45	Delaware	1.08 million
46	South Dakota	0.95 million
47	North Dakota	0.81 million
48	Alaska	0.73 million
49	District of Columbia	0.72 million
50	Vermont	0.65 million
51	Wyoming	0.60 million

Figures rounded. Source: extrapolated from confirmed 2026 to 2028 trajectories, consistent with CBO and Census Bureau growth assumptions.

Note the pattern embedded in this ranking: the Brennan Center’s analysis found that 17 states already record more deaths than births in the most recent measured year. Several of those states, concentrated in the Northeast and parts of Appalachia, still show modest population gains in the table above only because domestic and international migration offsets their natural decrease. Remove that migration component, and a meaningfully larger share of this state ranking would already be shrinking.

Population by Counties in the USA (Top 50 Largest Counties, Rounded & Estimated Figures)

Rank	County	State	Population
1	Los Angeles County	California	9.5 million
2	Cook County	Illinois	5.05 million
3	Harris County	Texas	5.05 million
4	Maricopa County	Arizona	4.78 million
5	San Diego County	California	3.34 million
6	Orange County	California	3.21 million
7	Miami-Dade County	Florida	2.80 million
8	Dallas County	Texas	2.71 million
9	Kings County	New York	2.59 million
10	Riverside County	California	2.60 million
11	Clark County	Nevada	2.50 million
12	Tarrant County	Texas	2.30 million
13	King County	Washington	2.37 million
14	San Bernardino County	California	2.25 million
15	Queens County	New York	2.23 million
16	Bexar County	Texas	2.13 million
17	Broward County	Florida	2.01 million
18	Santa Clara County	California	1.97 million
19	Wayne County	Michigan	1.68 million
20	Alameda County	California	1.72 million
21	Palm Beach County	Florida	1.68 million
22	Middlesex County	Massachusetts	1.67 million
23	New York County	New York	1.63 million
24	Hillsborough County	Florida	1.68 million
25	Travis County	Texas	1.43 million
26	Suffolk County	New York	1.48 million
27	Sacramento County	California	1.64 million
28	Orange County	Florida	1.63 million
29	Franklin County	Ohio	1.39 million
30	Nassau County	New York	1.38 million
31	Salt Lake County	Utah	1.26 million
32	Cuyahoga County	Ohio	1.23 million
33	Allegheny County	Pennsylvania	1.23 million
34	Fairfax County	Virginia	1.17 million
35	Hennepin County	Minnesota	1.29 million
36	Oakland County	Michigan	1.28 million
37	Wake County	North Carolina	1.26 million
38	Mecklenburg County	North Carolina	1.27 million
39	Contra Costa County	California	1.22 million
40	Collin County	Texas	1.27 million
41	Pima County	Arizona	1.09 million
42	Fresno County	California	1.07 million
43	Denton County	Texas	1.08 million
44	Gwinnett County	Georgia	1.03 million
45	Montgomery County	Maryland	1.07 million
46	Westchester County	New York	1.00 million
47	Bergen County	New Jersey	0.96 million
48	Fort Bend County	Texas	1.00 million
49	El Paso County	Texas	0.89 million
50	Davidson County	Tennessee	0.74 million

Figures rounded. Source: extrapolated county-level trajectories consistent with confirmed state growth patterns.

100 Main Cities by Population in the USA (Rounded & Estimated Figures)

Rank	City	State	Population
1	New York City	New York	8.40 million
2	Los Angeles	California	3.87 million
3	Chicago	Illinois	2.66 million
4	Houston	Texas	2.46 million
5	Phoenix	Arizona	1.79 million
6	San Antonio	Texas	1.60 million
7	Philadelphia	Pennsylvania	1.55 million
8	San Diego	California	1.42 million
9	Dallas	Texas	1.38 million
10	Fort Worth	Texas	1.05 million
11	Austin	Texas	1.03 million
12	Jacksonville	Florida	1.04 million
13	San Jose	California	0.98 million
14	Charlotte	North Carolina	0.97 million
15	Columbus	Ohio	0.93 million
16	Indianapolis	Indiana	0.90 million
17	San Francisco	California	0.85 million
18	Seattle	Washington	0.80 million
19	Denver	Colorado	0.74 million
20	Nashville	Tennessee	0.71 million
21	Oklahoma City	Oklahoma	0.72 million
22	El Paso	Texas	0.70 million
23	Washington	D.C.	0.71 million
24	Las Vegas	Nevada	0.68 million
25	Boston	Massachusetts	0.66 million
26	Portland	Oregon	0.65 million
27	Louisville	Kentucky	0.63 million
28	Memphis	Tennessee	0.59 million
29	Detroit	Michigan	0.60 million
30	Baltimore	Maryland	0.56 million
31	Albuquerque	New Mexico	0.58 million
32	Milwaukee	Wisconsin	0.55 million
33	Tucson	Arizona	0.57 million
34	Fresno	California	0.56 million
35	Sacramento	California	0.55 million
36	Mesa	Arizona	0.53 million
37	Atlanta	Georgia	0.53 million
38	Kansas City	Missouri	0.52 million
39	Colorado Springs	Colorado	0.51 million
40	Raleigh	North Carolina	0.52 million
41	Omaha	Nebraska	0.50 million
42	Miami	Florida	0.47 million
43	Long Beach	California	0.46 million
44	Virginia Beach	Virginia	0.46 million
45	Oakland	California	0.43 million
46	Minneapolis	Minnesota	0.43 million
47	Bakersfield	California	0.43 million
48	Tulsa	Oklahoma	0.41 million
49	Tampa	Florida	0.42 million
50	Wichita	Kansas	0.40 million
51	Arlington	Texas	0.41 million
52	Aurora	Colorado	0.41 million
53	New Orleans	Louisiana	0.37 million
54	Cleveland	Ohio	0.35 million
55	Anaheim	California	0.36 million
56	Honolulu	Hawaii	0.35 million
57	Henderson	Nevada	0.35 million
58	Lexington	Kentucky	0.34 million
59	Riverside	California	0.33 million
60	Irvine	California	0.33 million
61	Stockton	California	0.32 million
62	Corpus Christi	Texas	0.32 million
63	Orlando	Florida	0.33 million
64	Santa Ana	California	0.31 million
65	Saint Paul	Minnesota	0.31 million
66	Cincinnati	Ohio	0.30 million
67	Plano	Texas	0.31 million
68	Greensboro	North Carolina	0.30 million
69	Pittsburgh	Pennsylvania	0.30 million
70	Chandler	Arizona	0.30 million
71	Durham	North Carolina	0.29 million
72	Lincoln	Nebraska	0.29 million
73	Jersey City	New Jersey	0.29 million
74	Gilbert	Arizona	0.29 million
75	Madison	Wisconsin	0.27 million
76	Buffalo	New York	0.27 million
77	Toledo	Ohio	0.27 million
78	St. Petersburg	Florida	0.27 million
79	Chula Vista	California	0.27 million
80	Reno	Nevada	0.28 million
81	Lubbock	Texas	0.27 million
82	North Las Vegas	Nevada	0.28 million
83	Boise	Idaho	0.26 million
84	Scottsdale	Arizona	0.26 million
85	Fort Wayne	Indiana	0.27 million
86	Laredo	Texas	0.26 million
87	Glendale	Arizona	0.25 million
88	Winston-Salem	North Carolina	0.25 million
89	Norfolk	Virginia	0.24 million
90	Garland	Texas	0.25 million
91	Irving	Texas	0.24 million
92	Fremont	California	0.24 million
93	Hialeah	Florida	0.22 million
94	Richmond	Virginia	0.23 million
95	Spokane	Washington	0.23 million
96	Tacoma	Washington	0.22 million
97	Baton Rouge	Louisiana	0.22 million
98	San Bernardino	California	0.22 million
99	Des Moines	Iowa	0.22 million
100	Modesto	California	0.22 million

Figures rounded. Source: extrapolated city-level trajectories, consistent with U.S. Census Bureau methodology.

Population Density by Top Cities (Rounded, People per Square Mile)

Rank	City	Density
1	New York City	28,500
2	San Francisco	18,800
3	Jersey City	18,200
4	Boston	14,500
5	Chicago	11,800
6	Philadelphia	11,500
7	Miami	11,200
8	Washington, D.C.	11,100
9	Santa Ana	10,900
10	Newark	10,800
11	Los Angeles	8,400
12	Seattle	9,400
13	Long Beach	9,300
14	Minneapolis	8,000
15	Baltimore	7,600
16	Buffalo	6,100
17	Milwaukee	6,300
18	Honolulu	5,600
19	Sacramento	5,500
20	St. Louis	5,100
21	Portland	4,900
22	Denver	4,800
23	Las Vegas	4,600
24	San Diego	4,500
25	Atlanta	4,000

Figures rounded for readability. Source: U.S. Census Bureau land area and population data, current estimates.

Growth Rate: Fastest-Growing States and Cities (Estimated Figures)

Rank	State	Annual Growth Rate
1	Idaho	+2.0%
2	Texas	+1.85%
3	Florida	+1.75%
4	Utah	+1.74%
5	Arizona	+1.55%
6	Nevada	+1.50%
7	South Carolina	+1.42%

Rank	City	Annual Growth Rate
1	Georgetown, TX	+8.4%
2	Phoenix, AZ	+3.8%
3	Boise, ID	+3.3%
4	Austin, TX	+2.8%
5	Charlotte, NC	+2.4%
6	Raleigh, NC	+2.2%
7	Fort Worth, TX	+2.2%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau population estimates and components of change data.

Decline Rate: Fastest-Shrinking States and Cities (Estimated Figures)

Rank	State	Annual Decline Rate
1	West Virginia	-0.4%
2	Alaska	-0.2%
3	Mississippi	near flat (deaths now exceed births)
4	Illinois	near flat (deaths now exceed births)
5	Vermont	near flat (deaths now exceed births)

Rank	City	Annual Decline Rate
1	Jackson, MS	-1.55%
2	San Francisco, CA	-0.55%
3	Cleveland, OH	-0.45%
4	Pittsburgh, PA	-0.4%
5	Baltimore, MD	-0.3%
6	Detroit, MI	-0.3%
7	Chicago, IL	-0.25%
8	New York City, NY	-0.2%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau components of population change data, recent multi-year trends.

What the Age Crossover Actually Means for the Country

The arrival of US Population 2029’s defining feature, more residents 65 and older than residents under 18, is not just a demographic curiosity. It carries direct, measurable consequences across several systems simultaneously.

Social Security and Medicare strain intensifies

A shrinking ratio of working-age contributors to retirees has been a known long-term pressure point for decades, but 2029 marks the point where that pressure becomes structurally embedded in the population itself rather than just a future projection.

School enrollment patterns shift in already-aging states

States and counties where deaths already outnumber births, the 17 states identified by Brennan Center analysis, are likely to see school enrollment declines well before the national figures fully reflect it, since these state-level imbalances tend to lead the national trend by several years.

Labor force growth depends almost entirely on immigration and labor force participation gains

With the youth population no longer outpacing the senior population, the traditional engine of labor force growth, a steady pipeline of young workers entering the workforce, weakens considerably, placing more weight on immigration policy and on encouraging higher workforce participation among existing working-age adults.

Political and policy attention shifts accordingly

Aging-related policy areas, retirement security, long-term care, and healthcare costs are likely to claim a growing share of legislative and budgetary attention simply because the demographic group most affected by them now represents a larger voting and advocacy bloc than at any prior point in American history.

Frequently Asked Questions About the US Population 2029

What is the current US Population 2029 estimate?

Approximately 350 to 352 million people, based on Congressional Budget Office and Census Bureau-aligned projections.

Why is 2029 considered a significant year for U.S. demographics?

The Census Bureau’s middle-series projections show 2029 as the year Americans aged 65 and older are projected to outnumber Americans under 18 for the first time in the country’s history.

What is driving the US population growth in 2029?

International migration, since the national fertility rate of approximately 1.59 to 1.6 children per woman sits well below the 2.1 replacement level needed for natural population growth alone.

Is immigration to the United States increasing or decreasing heading into 2029?

Decreasing. Census Bureau estimates show immigration fell by more than 50% between the early 2020s and the year ending July 2025, with further declines projected.

How many states already have more deaths than births?

Seventeen states, roughly a third of the country, as of the most recent measured year, up sharply from just four states throughout the entire 2010s decade.

Which state has the largest population?

California, with approximately 39.7 million residents, though its growth rate has slowed considerably in recent years.

Which state is growing the fastest?

Idaho, followed closely by Texas, Florida, and Utah, all posted growth rates well above the national average.

Which US city has the largest population?

New York City, with a population exceeding 8.4 million, more than double the next largest city.

What is the average life expectancy in the United States?

Approximately 79.3 years by Social Security Trustees’ estimates, with the Census Bureau’s own figure running slightly higher, near 80.2 years.

What percentage of Americans identify as religiously unaffiliated?

Roughly 29% of U.S. adults, a figure that has plateaued after years of steady growth.

This guide reflects Congressional Budget Office demographic outlook data, U.S. Census Bureau projections, Brennan Center for Justice analysis, and Worldometer estimates, and will be reviewed periodically as updated figures become available throughout 2029.