Thailand Has Become One of Southeast Asia’s Older Societies
Population at a Glance
- Total population (2025): approximately 65.95 to 66.0 million, in decline since 2020
- Population growth rate: approximately -0.1% to -0.2% annually (2023-2024), officially negative
- Population aged 0-14: 15.2% (2024), down from 16.9% in 2020
- Population aged 15-59 (working age, Thai definition): 64.0% (2024), down from 65.3% in 2020
- Population aged 60 and older: 20.8% (2024) per NSO registration data; a separate Ministry of Interior count put the 2024 figure at 20.70%, or 13.45 million people
- Total fertility rate: estimates range from 0.87 (CIA World Factbook, 2025) to approximately 1.5 (cited in Thai elderly-care research), reflecting different data sources and methodologies, but consistently far below the 2.1 replacement level
- Life expectancy: 77.7 years overall (74.65 for men, 80.83 for women), per CIA estimates; some sources cite 74.9 for men and 81.1 for women
- Dependency ratio: 56.2% in 2024, up from 53.1% in 2020, according to Thailand’s Statistical Yearbook
Sources: Thailand National Statistical Office (NSO), Statistical Yearbook Thailand 2025; CIA World Factbook; Thailand Department of Provincial Administration, Ministry of Interior.
Natural population change in Thailand turned negative in 2024, meaning the country now records more deaths than births in a given year, a threshold that, once crossed, typically only reverses through sustained fertility increases or substantial net immigration, neither of which currently characterizes Thailand’s demographic trajectory.
Thailand’s population has been shrinking since 2022. The country’s own National Statistical Office registration data show total population falling from 66.19 million in 2020 to 65.95 million in 2024, a small but unmistakable decline driven by a fertility rate that has fallen to somewhere between 0.87 and 1.5 children per woman depending on the measure used, among the lowest in Southeast Asia and comparable to levels seen in parts of East Asia.
Thailand entered what demographers formally classify as an “Aging Society” back in 2005, when its population aged 60 and above first crossed 10 percent. Two decades later, that share has more than doubled to roughly 20.7 percent as of mid-2024, and Thai government planning agencies project it will reach approximately 31 to 33 percent by 2040. Thailand is aging faster than almost anywhere else in Southeast Asia, and unlike Singapore, it is doing so without the same level of accumulated national wealth to cushion the transition.
Thailand’s Fertility Decline Happened Earlier Than in Many Neighbors
Thailand’s fertility transition began earlier and proceeded more completely than in most of its Southeast Asian neighbors, including Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines, all covered elsewhere in this series. Thailand’s fertility rate has been below replacement level for an extended period, a pattern researchers trace to a combination of an unusually effective national family planning program launched in the 1970s, rapid urbanization, expanding female education and workforce participation, and rising costs associated with raising children in an increasingly urbanized, market-oriented economy.
This earlier start means Thailand’s population is now considerably further along its aging trajectory than most of its regional peers. While Vietnam’s fertility only fell below replacement level within the past several years, and Indonesia and the Philippines remain at or above replacement fertility as detailed in companion articles in this series, Thailand has operated below replacement fertility for decades, giving its aging population structure a multi-decade head start on the rest of mainland and maritime Southeast Asia.
The Working Age Population Is Becoming a Critical Issue
Thailand’s dependency ratio, the number of dependents (children and elderly combined) relative to the working-age population, climbed from 53.1 percent in 2020 to 56.2 percent in 2024, according to the Statistical Yearbook Thailand 2025, meaning for every roughly 100 working-age Thais, there are now 56 dependents to support, up from 53 just four years earlier. This ratio has been climbing steadily and is expected to continue rising as the working-age share, at 64.0 percent in 2024, down from 65.3 percent in 2020, continues shrinking in tandem with population aging.
Thailand’s overall age dependency ratio was recorded at 42.4 to 44.4 dependents per 100 working-age people around 2022-2023 by separate international data sources, a figure that, while calculated slightly differently than the Thai government’s own 56.2 percent measure, points in the same direction: a labor force supporting a growing share of dependents relative to its own size, with implications for productivity, retirement funding, and household economics.
Thailand’s Elderly Population Is Not Evenly Distributed
Thailand’s aging is occurring alongside significant regional variation, though comprehensive province-level breakdowns are less consistently published than national totals. Bangkok and other major urban centers have generally recorded lower fertility rates and faster aging than rural provinces in Thailand’s northeast, a pattern broadly consistent with global trends linking urbanization, education, and delayed family formation to lower fertility.
Rural areas, meanwhile, often experience a different manifestation of aging: younger working-age adults migrating to Bangkok and other urban centers for employment, leaving behind a disproportionately elderly rural population even where fertility rates historically ran somewhat higher than in the capital.
The Economic Consequences of Rapid Aging
Thailand officially crossed the 10 percent threshold marking an “Aging Society” in 2005. Thai National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) projections put the share of the population aged 60 and above at approximately 31.4 to 33 percent by 2040, positioning Thailand among the fastest-aging countries in the world, a trajectory that Thai researchers and policymakers have connected directly to several converging economic pressures:
- Healthcare costs. An elderly population share climbing toward one-third of the total by 2040 will substantially increase demand for chronic disease management, long-term care, and broader health system capacity.
- Pension sustainability. A shrinking working-age base relative to retirees strains any pay-as-you-go pension structure, a concern shared across the aging societies profiled throughout this series, from Iran to Japan.
- Labor force and productivity. With the working-age share already declining from 65.3 percent in 2020 to 64.0 percent in 2024, Thailand’s economy faces a shrinking labor pool even as demand for elderly care and healthcare services expands.
- Household structures. Rural-to-urban internal migration among working-age Thais increasingly leaves elderly parents in rural areas without the traditional multigenerational household support that once characterized Thai family structures, shifting more of the caregiving burden onto formal systems not yet fully built to absorb it.
Can Immigration Help Thailand Offset Aging?
Thailand’s net migration rate stood at approximately -0.13 migrants per 1,000 population according to CIA World Factbook estimates, indicating Thailand is neither a major net sender nor receiver of international migrants on a per-capita basis, despite hosting a substantial number of migrant workers from neighboring Myanmar, Laos, and Cambodia who fill significant portions of Thailand’s agricultural, construction, and fishing labor sectors.
This existing migrant labor population already provides some offset to Thai domestic labor shortages in specific low-wage sectors, but it has not been sufficient to reverse the broader national trend of a shrinking, aging workforce, nor does Thailand appear to be positioning itself, unlike Singapore, as a large-scale, actively managed immigration destination aimed at directly counterbalancing its demographic aging.
Thailand Compared With Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines
Thailand’s fertility rate and aging trajectory place it well ahead of its immediate Southeast Asian neighbors on the demographic transition curve. Vietnam’s fertility, at approximately 1.91 to 1.93 as covered in this series’ companion article, only fell below replacement level within the past several years, while Indonesia and the Philippines both remain at or near replacement-level fertility.
Thailand’s elderly share of roughly 20.7 to 20.8 percent as of the mid-2020s substantially exceeds Vietnam’s 14.5 percent, Indonesia’s roughly 10 to 11 percent, and the Philippines’ still-younger population structure, positioning Thailand as something of an early warning case for the aging trajectory that Vietnam, in particular, is now explicitly trying to avoid replicating through its own 2025 fertility policy reversal.
| Country | 60/65+ Share (approx., mid-2020s) | Fertility Rate | Aging Society Threshold Crossed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thailand | 20.7-20.8% (60+) | 0.87-1.5 | 2005 |
| Vietnam | 14.5% (60+) | 1.91-1.93 | Not yet at Thailand’s level |
| Indonesia | ~10-11% (60+) | ~2.1 | Not yet |
| Japan (see dedicated article) | ~29% (65+) | ~1.2 | 1970 (aging society); 2007 (super-aged) |
Thailand’s Population Outlook
Thai government projections from the National Economic and Social Development Council anticipate the population aged 60 and above rising from approximately 20.17 percent in 2023 to 31.37 percent by 2040, a trajectory that, combined with a fertility rate that shows no clear sign of reversing, points toward continued population decline beyond the modest contraction already recorded since 2020.
Thailand’s dependency ratio, already at 56.2 percent in 2024 and rising, is expected to continue climbing well past that level over the coming fifteen years absent a substantial and currently unforeseen change in either fertility trends or immigration policy.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. How old is Thailand’s population?
Thailand’s population aged 60 and above reached approximately 20.7 to 20.8 percent of the total population by 2024, according to Thai government sources, more than double the roughly 10 percent share recorded when Thailand officially entered an “Aging Society” in 2005.
2. Why is Thailand aging?
Thailand’s aging results from a fertility rate that fell below replacement level decades ago, driven by an effective national family planning program dating to the 1970s, rapid urbanization, expanding female education and employment, and rising costs of raising children, combined with rising life expectancy of approximately 77.7 years.
3. How many elderly people live in Thailand?
Thailand’s Department of Provincial Administration recorded 13,450,391 people aged 60 and older as of June 30, 2024, representing 20.70 percent of the country’s total population at that time.
4. Is Thailand’s population declining?
Yes. Thailand’s population has fallen from 66.19 million in 2020 to 65.95 million in 2024, according to National Statistical Office registration data, with the country recording negative natural population growth, meaning deaths now exceed births, starting in 2024.
5. Will Thailand face worker shortages?
Thailand’s working-age population share fell from 65.3 percent in 2020 to 64.0 percent in 2024, while the dependency ratio rose from 53.1 percent to 56.2 percent over the same period, indicating a shrinking labor force relative to the dependents it must support, a trend expected to continue.
6. Can migrants help Thailand’s workforce?
Thailand already hosts significant numbers of migrant workers from Myanmar, Laos, and Cambodia in agriculture, construction, and fishing, but Thailand’s essentially neutral net migration rate of approximately -0.13 per 1,000 population suggests this existing migration has not been scaled to directly offset the country’s broader demographic aging trend.
7. How does Thailand compare with Japan?
Thailand crossed the 10 percent elderly-population threshold marking an Aging Society in 2005, decades after Japan reached the same milestone in 1970, but Thailand’s per capita income remains substantially lower than Japan’s, meaning Thailand faces a comparably rapid aging trajectory with considerably less accumulated national wealth to fund the transition.
8. What will Thailand’s population look like in 2050?
Thai National Economic and Social Development Council projections put the population aged 60 and above at approximately 31 to 33 percent by 2040, suggesting continued acceleration of Thailand’s aging trajectory and likely continued total population decline through 2050, though official Thai projections extending specifically to 2050 were not identified in available current sources.
Sources
- Thailand National Statistical Office (NSO), Statistical Yearbook Thailand 2025.
- CIA World Factbook, Demographics of Thailand, 2022-2025 estimates.
- UNFPA World Population Dashboard, Thailand country data, 2025.
- United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. World Population Prospects 2024 Revision.
- Thailand Department of Provincial Administration, Ministry of Interior, elderly population data, June 2024.
- Thailand National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC), population aging forecasts, reported via Statista, 2024.
- Our World in Data, Population and Demography Country Profile: Thailand, drawing on UN WPP 2024.
