Cuba recorded 136,214 deaths and only 68,064 births in 2025, according to the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI). Deaths were exactly twice births. In the capital, Havana, the ratio was nearly three to one, with 29,646 deaths against 10,323 births. Add net emigration of 245,264 people and the island’s official population fell by 313,414 in a single year, to 9,434,593 at the end of 2025. That is a decline of 3.2% in twelve months, in a country that counted more than 11 million people as recently as 2020.
Cuba is now the oldest country in Latin America and the Caribbean, with a median age of 45 on ONEI figures and 26.7% of residents aged 60 or over. Aging is not a side effect of Cuba’s population decline. It is the main event, produced by three forces working together: a fertility rate that has stayed below replacement level since 1978, a rise in life expectancy of about 19 years since 1950, and a steady loss of younger adults to emigration.
Cuba’s Population Today
Cuba has no recent census. The last one was held in 2012, so every current figure is an estimate. ONEI publishes an annual “effective population” figure, while the UN produces a modelled estimate. The two now differ by about 1.5 million.
| Metric | Figure | Year / Source |
|---|---|---|
| Official population | 9,434,593 | End 2025, ONEI |
| UN modelled estimate | 10,892,659 | Mid-2026, UN WPP 2024 |
| Births | 68,064 | 2025, ONEI |
| Deaths | 136,214 | 2025, ONEI |
| Net migration | –245,264 | 2025, ONEI |
| Total fertility rate | 1.29 children per woman | 2025, ONEI (second year at this level) |
| Median age | 45 (ONEI); 42.5 (UN) | 2025 to 2026 |
| Population aged 60 and over | 2,519,823 (26.7%) | End 2025, ONEI |
| Working-age population | 5,606,541 | End 2025, ONEI |
| Life expectancy at birth | 78.4 years (male 76.3, female 81.0) | 2025 to 2026, UN WPP 2024 |
| Sex ratio | 972 males per 1,000 females | 2025, ONEI |
| Urban share | ~82% | 2026, UN-based |
The official series shows how quickly the decline has accelerated.
| Date | Population | Change | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 census | 11,177,743 | n/a | ONEI census |
| 2012 census | 11,167,325 | –0.1% vs 2002 | ONEI census |
| End 2023 | 10,055,968 | –10.1% vs end 2020 | ONEI |
| End 2024 | 9,748,007 | –307,961 (–3.1%) | ONEI |
| End 2025 | 9,434,593 | –313,414 (–3.2%) | ONEI |
Between the 2012 census and the end of 2025, the official count fell by 1.73 million people, or 15.5%, though a census count and ONEI’s effective-population series are not strictly identical measures. In 2025 all 15 provinces and the special municipality of Isla de la Juventud recorded population declines.
Independent estimates are lower again. The demographer Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos estimated that only 8,025,624 people were living in Cuba at the end of 2024, which is 1.72 million below ONEI’s own figure for that date. The government does not publish emigration statistics and treats departed citizens as residents for up to two years, which creates a lag in the official count. The UN figure of 10.89 million, built on pre-crisis assumptions, is the highest of the three and almost certainly overstates the resident population.
Cuba Has One of the Caribbean’s Most Advanced Aging Profiles
Aging has moved faster than most Cuban analyses anticipated. A Cuban public health review of ONEI data put the 60-plus share at 20.8% at the end of 2021.
By the end of 2025 it was 26.7%, a rise of nearly six percentage points in four years, partly because emigration of younger adults shrinks the denominator. The working-age population fell by 1,259,894 over five years, an 18% drop.
| Country / Territory | Median Age | Total Fertility Rate | UN Growth 2026 | UN Change 2026 to 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cuba | 42.5 (UN) to 45 (ONEI) | 1.29 (ONEI) to 1.45 (UN) | –0.42% | –13.9% |
| Puerto Rico | ~44 | ~1.2 | –0.47% | –22.3% |
| Barbados | ~40 | ~1.6 | +0.03% | –6.5% |
| Trinidad and Tobago | ~36 | 1.6 to 1.7 | +0.10% | –7.5% |
| Jamaica | ~31 | 1.3 to 2.0 | –0.16% | –13.4% |
| Haiti | ~24 | 2.5 to 3.0 | +1.08% | +22.2% |
Puerto Rico is the only Caribbean population with comparable age and fertility figures, and it is projected to shrink faster than Cuba. Jamaica’s wide fertility range reflects disagreement between sources. Haiti, with a median age about twenty years lower than Cuba’s, shows how far apart the region’s demographic stages have become.
Why Cuba’s Fertility Declined
Cuba’s fertility decline began long before the current economic crisis. The average Cuban woman had nearly five children in the 1960s, and the birth rate in 1963 exceeded 35 per 1,000 during a postrevolutionary baby boom. The total fertility rate then fell from 3.7 in 1970 to 1.9 in 1978, and it has never again reached the replacement level of 2.1.
| Period | Total Fertility Rate | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 1960s | Nearly 5 | Baby boom; birth rate above 35 per 1,000 in 1963 |
| 1970 | 3.7 | Start of rapid decline |
| 1978 | 1.9 | First year below replacement |
| 2006 | 1.39 | Lowest point of that decade |
| 2015 | 1.72 | Partial recovery, still well below replacement |
| 2024 and 2025 | 1.29 | Lowest since 1958, per ONEI |
Researchers attribute the early decline to several overlapping causes: wide access to contraception and free abortion, rising female education and employment (women made up 65.6% of professional and technical workers in 2007), a falling marriage rate, and above all a housing shortage and low wages that discouraged couples from having children. Cuba’s government has tried to raise births with maternity programs, with limited effect. The recent drop below 1.3 reflects a different pressure.
After the monetary reorganization of January 2021 and the inflation that followed, Cuban commentators and demographers point to economic shortages, housing, blackouts and emigration as reasons women postpone or give up motherhood. An ONEI survey of about 12,000 people found accumulated fertility of 1.14 children per woman aged 15 to 54, and 1.6 among those who already had children.
Natural decrease is not new. Cuba has recorded more deaths than births every year since 2019, according to reporting based on ONEI data. What changed in 2024 and 2025 was the scale.
Migration and Cuba’s Population
Emigration is now the largest single driver of Cuba’s decline. In 2025, net migration of negative 245,264 accounts for 78% of the 313,414-person drop, with the remaining 68,150 coming from deaths exceeding births. Independent estimates suggest more than one million people left the island between 2021 and 2025, and the official count shows a fall of more than 1.6 million since the end of 2020. The Cuban-origin population in the United States was estimated at 2.9 million in 2024.
The age pattern is what turns emigration into aging. Cuban demographers and outside researchers consistently describe emigrants as younger and working-age, taking with them their reproductive capacity. Each departure lowers the number of women of childbearing age, which depresses future births, and raises the median age of those who remain. This is why the 60-plus share rose so quickly in four years, even though the number of older Cubans grew only modestly.
The gap between data sources matters here. The UN’s estimate of net migration for 2025 is only negative 22,244, roughly one eleventh of ONEI’s figure. If official emigration figures are themselves conservative, as independent analysts argue, Cuba’s age profile is likely older than the published numbers suggest.
Longer Life Expectancy and Mortality Change
Cuba’s aging is also a success story in one respect. UN estimates put life expectancy at birth at about 59 years in 1950 and 78.4 years in 2025, a gain of roughly 19 years, with women at 81.0 and men at 76.3. Infant mortality was estimated at 7.1 per 1,000 live births in 2024. Universal education, free healthcare and low child mortality built a European-style age structure, with long lives, low fertility and large cohorts of older people.
A rising death rate does not mean worsening health. Cuba’s crude death rate reached 14.2 per 1,000 in 2025, compared with a birth rate of 7.1 per 1,000, largely because there are many more older people at risk of dying. Aging, in other words, has three drivers that can be separated.
| Driver | Evidence | Effect on Age Structure |
|---|---|---|
| Fertility below replacement since 1978 | TFR from nearly 5 (1960s) to 1.29 (2025) | Shrinks the base of the age pyramid |
| Longer life | Life expectancy about 59 (1950) to 78.4 (2025) | Enlarges older age groups |
| Emigration of younger adults | Net migration –245,264 (2025); 2.9 million Cuban-origin in the U.S. | Removes working-age adults and future births |
The Economic Effects of Population Aging
The economic pressure is arithmetic. Cuba has 2,519,823 residents aged 60 or over and 5,606,541 on ONEI’s working-age count, a ratio of about 45 older people for every 100 of working age. That ratio is a derived figure and depends on how ONEI defines working age, but the direction is clear. In Villa Clara, the oldest province, ONEI reported 514 older adults for every 1,000 people of working age.
A shrinking workforce supports fewer workers and fewer taxpayers while demand for healthcare and care services rises. Cuba lost more than 1.26 million working-age residents in five years, equal to about 18% of that group. Because the people leaving are disproportionately those with skills and training, the loss falls on the sectors, such as health, that Cuba has traditionally exported and relied on. Detailed pension and health-spending figures are outside the scope of the demographic sources used here and are not estimated in this article.
Regional Differences Within Cuba
Aging is uneven across the country. ONEI figures reported in 2025 show that Villa Clara, in central Cuba, has the oldest population of any province, with 29.1% aged 60 or over, followed by Havana at 28.1%. They are the only two provinces above 28%. The youngest provinces are Guantánamo (22.5%) and Artemisa (23.2%). Within Havana, the municipality of Plaza de la Revolución leads the national ranking at 36.8%.
| Province | Share Aged 60+ | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Villa Clara | 29.1% | Oldest province; 2,036 older adults per 1,000 children |
| Havana | 28.1% | 1,866 older adults per 1,000 children; deaths nearly triple births in 2025 |
| Artemisa | 23.2% | Among the youngest provinces |
| Guantánamo | 22.5% | Youngest province |
| National | 26.7% | End 2025 |
Santiago de Cuba, Holguín, Camagüey and Villa Clara recorded the largest numbers of deaths in 2025. Havana, the largest city, is estimated at between about 1.6 million and 2.1 million residents depending on the boundary used, and its birth deficit shows that urban Cuba, not just the countryside, is contracting.
Cuba’s Future Population
The UN’s medium-variant projection puts Cuba at 9,381,999 in 2050 and 5,577,282 in 2100, declines of 13.9% and 48.8% from the 2026 estimate. That works out to an average pace of about 0.6% a year to 2050. The pace recorded in 2025 was 3.2%, about five times faster.
| Year | UN Projection | Change From 2026 | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10,892,659 | n/a | UN estimate; ONEI end-2025 figure is 9,434,593 |
| 2050 | 9,381,999 | –13.9% | UN medium variant |
| 2100 | 5,577,282 | –48.8% | UN medium variant |
Those projections start from a population that is already 1.5 million higher than the official count. If ONEI’s figure is the correct base, the 2050 population falls further below the UN path even at the UN’s slower pace. The projections also assume that emigration eases and fertility edges up, which would reverse two of the trends seen in 2024 and 2025. Whether they do depends on housing, prices and economic conditions, none of which a demographic model can forecast.
Key Findings
- Cuba’s official population fell by 313,414 in 2025 to 9,434,593, a 3.2% decline, after a 3.1% fall in 2024.
- Deaths (136,214) were exactly double births (68,064) in 2025, and Havana recorded nearly three deaths for every birth.
- Emigration accounts for about 78% of the 2025 loss (net migration of negative 245,264); natural decrease accounts for the remaining 68,150.
- The fertility rate of 1.29 children per woman is the lowest since 1958 and has been below replacement every year since 1978.
- 26.7% of residents, 2,519,823 people, are aged 60 or over, compared with 20.8% at the end of 2021.
- The working-age population fell by 1,259,894 in five years, about 18%.
- The UN estimate of 10.89 million is about 1.5 million above ONEI’s count and about 2.9 million above the independent estimate, which refers to end-2024 rather than 2025.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. Why is Cuba’s population aging?
Three forces combine: fertility below replacement since 1978, a rise in life expectancy from about 59 years in 1950 to 78.4 in 2025, and the emigration of younger adults, which removes working-age residents and future births. The 60-plus share reached 26.7% at the end of 2025.
2. Is Cuba’s population declining?
Yes. ONEI reported 9,434,593 residents at the end of 2025, down 313,414 from a year earlier and down from more than 11 million in 2020. All provinces recorded declines in 2025.
3. What is Cuba’s fertility rate?
ONEI reported 1.29 children per woman in both 2024 and 2025, the lowest since 1958. UN-based estimates are somewhat higher, at about 1.45. The replacement level is 2.1.
4. How does migration affect Cuba’s demographics?
Net migration of negative 245,264 in 2025 accounted for about 78% of the population decline. Emigrants are mostly younger adults, so their departure raises the median age and reduces the number of future births.
5. What will Cuba’s population look like in the future?
The UN projects 9.38 million in 2050 and 5.58 million in 2100. Those figures start from an estimate about 1.5 million above the official count, so actual outcomes could be lower.
6. Why do Cuba’s population figures differ between sources?
Cuba has had no census since 2012. ONEI publishes an effective population estimate, the UN uses a model, and independent researchers estimate emigration separately. The 2025 figures are 9.43 million (ONEI) and 10.94 million (UN), with an independent estimate of 8.03 million for end-2024.
7. Which part of Cuba is the oldest?
Villa Clara, where 29.1% of residents are 60 or older, followed by Havana at 28.1%. Within Havana, Plaza de la Revolución has 36.8% of residents aged 60 or over.
8. How long do Cubans live?
UN estimates put life expectancy at birth at about 78.4 years in 2025, with women at 81.0 and men at 76.3, up from about 59 years in 1950.
9. How does Cuba compare with other Caribbean countries?
Cuba and Puerto Rico are the Caribbean’s oldest populations, with median ages of about 42 to 45 and 44. Jamaica’s median age is about 31 and Haiti’s about 24.
10. When did Cuba’s fertility fall below replacement level?
In 1978, when the total fertility rate fell to about 1.9. It was nearly 5 in the 1960s and has not returned to 2.1 since.
Sources
- Oficina Nacional de Estadística e Información (ONEI), Cuba, 2025 population data presented July 21, 2026, as reported by Radio Angulo, CiberCuba and Arab News
- ONEI vital statistics for 2025 (births, deaths, Havana figures, sex ratio, median age) as reported by Cubadebate and the Associated Press (August 2026)
- ONEI provincial aging data as reported by CiberCuba (July 2025)
- United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2024 Revision (via Worldometer, StatisticsTimes and Statbase)
- Albizu-Campos demographic study on Cuba’s resident population, as reported by EFE and CiberCuba
- Revista Médica Electrónica, “Significance of population aging and its impact on Cuban society” (ONEI data to 2021)
- Associated Press / NBC News, “Cuba to Women: Please Have More Babies”; PubMed abstract, “Cuba: the demography of revolution”; ALAP, family planning and reproductive health in Cuba
- Focus on Geography, “Cuba’s Precarious Population Pyramid”; OnCubaNews, ONEI national fertility survey; Havana Times / IPS, “An Aging Population Clouds Cuba’s Future”
- Wikipedia, Demographics of Cuba and Cubans (census and diaspora figures cross-referenced against ONEI)
