For the first time since Confederation in 1867, Canada’s population fell over a full calendar year. Statistics Canada’s preliminary estimates put the population at 41,472,081 on January 1, 2026, down roughly 102,000 people from a year earlier, a reversal that arrived just two years after Canada was recording some of the fastest population growth in its history, driven almost entirely by immigration. The story of Canada’s population in the mid-2020s is not simply that immigration drives growth. It is that immigration policy, deliberately tightened, can reverse that growth just as quickly.
How Fast Is Canada’s Population Growing? It Isn’t, Right Now
Canada’s population grew by roughly 243,000 people, or 0.6 percent, in a single quarter of 2024, among the fastest quarterly growth the country had recorded in decades, fueled almost entirely by a surge in temporary residents, workers and students admitted on non-permanent visas.
That growth reversed sharply within about two years. Statistics Canada’s fourth-quarter 2025 report recorded a population decline of 103,504 people, or 0.2 percent, between October 1, 2025, and January 1, 2026, marking the third consecutive quarter of decline. By April 1, 2026, the population stood at approximately 41.4 million, down about 0.5 percent from a year earlier when it had been roughly 41.6 million.
Canada’s Recent Quarterly Population Change
| Period | Population Change | Driver |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2024 | +243,000 (+0.6%) | Surge in temporary residents |
| Q4 2024 | +80,385 | Continued but slowing growth |
| Full year 2025 | −102,000 (first annual decline since 1867) | Temporary resident outflow |
| Q4 2025 (Oct 1–Jan 1, 2026) | −103,504 (−0.2%) | Temporary resident outflow |
| Q1 2026 (Jan 1–Apr 1, 2026) | −55,000 | Temporary resident outflow, third straight quarterly decline |
Immigration as a Major Population Driver, in Both Directions
The mechanism behind both the earlier surge and the current decline is the same: Canada’s population of non-permanent residents, people on work or study permits rather than permanent residency, expanded and then contracted with unusual speed. That population peaked at 3,149,131 on October 1, 2024, and had fallen to 2,676,441 by January 1, 2026, a drop of nearly 473,000 people in just fifteen months.
By April 1, 2026, temporary residents had fallen further, to about 2.56 million, or 6.1 percent of the total population, following a 4.4 percent single-quarter decline attributed to a roughly 118,000-person drop in that group alone.
Statistics Canada attributed the decline specifically to falling numbers of people holding study permits only, work permits only, or both, alongside sharply reduced new arrivals: 7,040 new-student arrivals in January 2026, a 37 percent decrease from January 2025, and 11,850 new-worker arrivals, down 20 percent from the year before.
This reversal follows a deliberate federal policy shift. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government stated in its fall 2025 budget that Canada would admit only 385,000 temporary residents in 2026, about 43 percent below the 2025 target, and 370,000 in both 2027 and 2028, while capping new permanent resident admissions at 380,000 annually between 2026 and 2028, just under 1 percent of the total population.
A separate September 2025 economic and social report set an explicit target: lowering the share of temporary residents in the national population to 5 percent by the end of 2026, down from the 6.1 to 6.4 percent range recorded in early 2026 data.
Non-Permanent Resident Population, 2024 to 2026
| Date | Non-Permanent Residents | Share of Total Population |
|---|---|---|
| October 1, 2024 (peak) | 3,149,131 | ~7.6% |
| January 1, 2026 | 2,676,441 | 6.4% |
| April 1, 2026 | ~2.56 million | 6.1% |
| Government target, end of 2026 | — | 5.0% |
Where Do Newcomers Live?
Ontario, home to roughly 15.26 million people as of the January 2026 estimate, remains Canada’s largest province by population, followed by Quebec at approximately 8.89 million and British Columbia at roughly 5.60 to 5.65 million.
Ontario has also absorbed the sharpest impact of the temporary resident outflow, recording a 0.3 percent quarterly population decline in the fourth quarter of 2025, driven substantially by departing study-permit holders; the province lost 47,511 study permit holders in the third quarter of 2025 alone, with non-permanent resident outflows continuing into the fourth quarter.
Alberta, with a population in the range of 4.93 to 5.0 million, has recorded the largest net interprovincial migration gain for fourteen consecutive quarters, adding a net 3,684 people from other provinces and territories between October 2025 and January 2026, smaller than the 4,993-person gain in the same quarter of 2024 but still well ahead of the next-largest gainers, British Columbia (+1,227) and Nova Scotia (+826).
Why Immigration Concentrated Geographically
Canada’s shift toward a two-step immigration system, in which most newcomers first arrive on temporary work or study permits before later seeking permanent residency, concentrated much of the recent immigration surge in provinces and cities with existing large international student populations and established immigrant communities, particularly Ontario. This concentration meant that when federal policy reversed course on temporary resident numbers starting in 2024, Ontario and other high-intake provinces experienced the sharpest population effects, both on the way up and on the way back down.
Canada’s Foreign Born Population
As of 2023 figures cited in Wikipedia’s demographic overview, temporary residents made up approximately 6.2 percent of Canada’s population, or about 2.5 million people, a figure that would climb further before the subsequent policy-driven reversal.
Canada’s total fertility rate reached a record low of approximately 1.25 in 2024, among the lowest recorded fertility rates in the world, meaning that even as the temporary resident count began falling, natural population increase remained too limited to offset the loss on its own.
Population Growth Beyond Canada’s Largest Cities
While Ontario absorbed the steepest population losses tied to departing non-permanent residents, growth patterns across smaller provinces and territories showed considerably more resilience. Statistics Canada’s data noted that all provinces and Yukon experienced declines in non-permanent resident numbers during the fourth quarter of 2025, but the scale varied significantly, with Alberta’s sustained interprovincial migration gains partially offsetting weaker international arrival numbers in a way that larger, immigration-dependent provinces like Ontario could not match.
Aging and Immigration
With fertility at a record low of roughly 1.25 children per woman and temporary resident numbers now falling by federal design, Canada’s demographic profile faces a structural tension: immigration has been the primary lever available to offset an aging, low-fertility population, but that same lever is now being deliberately reduced in response to housing and infrastructure strain, meaning the working-age population growth Canada relied on through 2023 and early 2024 cannot currently be counted on to continue at the same pace.
Housing, Labor and Infrastructure
The rapid rise and subsequent reversal in temporary resident numbers was itself substantially a policy response to housing pressure. University of Waterloo economist Mikal Skuterud and other observers have noted that Canada’s temporary resident population more than doubled over roughly two years before the reversal began, raising concerns about housing markets already facing low supply, concerns that public opinion polling reflected in a rising share of Canadians, even among those broadly supportive of immigration, describing recent intake levels as excessive.
Canada’s Future Population
Statistics Canada has itself cautioned that its preliminary 2025 and early-2026 estimates could be revised, noting that a growing number of work and study permit extensions, along with lengthened federal immigration processing times, may not be fully captured in current figures.
Whether Canada’s population decline proves to be a short-term correction tied to a specific policy reset or the start of a more prolonged period of slower growth will depend heavily on how the government’s stated targets, 385,000 temporary residents and 380,000 permanent residents annually through 2026 to 2028, translate into actual admissions and departures in the coming years.
Conclusion
Canada’s population data over the past two years offers a rare real-world demonstration of how directly immigration policy can move a national population figure. A country that recorded some of its fastest quarterly growth in decades in early 2024 recorded its first annual population decline since Confederation just two years later, both changes driven by the same lever: the number of temporary residents the federal government chose to admit. Whatever Canada’s population does next will likely say more about policy decisions made in Ottawa than about any underlying shift in Canadian birth rates or life expectancy.
Key Findings
- Canada’s population fell by approximately 102,000 people over the full year 2025, the first annual decline recorded since Confederation in 1867.
- The decline was driven almost entirely by a drop in non-permanent residents, which fell from a peak of 3,149,131 on October 1, 2024, to roughly 2.56 million by April 1, 2026, a reduction of nearly 600,000 people in eighteen months.
- The federal government has set explicit targets to reduce temporary residents to 5 percent of the population by the end of 2026 and cap permanent resident admissions at 380,000 annually through 2028.
- Ontario absorbed the sharpest population impact from the temporary resident outflow, including a loss of 47,511 study permit holders in a single quarter of 2025.
- Canada’s fertility rate hit a record low of approximately 1.25 children per woman in 2024, among the lowest in the world, leaving the country with limited natural population growth to offset the immigration slowdown.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. Is Canada’s population still growing?
No, not currently. Canada’s population fell by approximately 102,000 people over the full year 2025, the first annual decline since Confederation in 1867, and continued declining through the first quarter of 2026.
2. Why did Canada’s population start declining?
The decline was driven by a sharp drop in non-permanent residents, people on temporary work or study permits, following deliberate federal policy changes aimed at reducing temporary resident numbers to ease housing and infrastructure strain.
3. How much has Canada’s temporary resident population fallen?
Non-permanent residents fell from a peak of 3,149,131 on October 1, 2024, to approximately 2.56 million by April 1, 2026, a decline of nearly 600,000 people, or roughly 19 percent, in eighteen months.
4. What is Canada’s current population?
Canada’s population stood at 41,472,081 as of January 1, 2026, according to Statistics Canada’s preliminary estimates, with further quarterly declines recorded into early 2026.
5. What are Canada’s new immigration targets?
The federal government plans to admit only 385,000 temporary residents in 2026, about 43 percent below the 2025 target, and cap new permanent resident admissions at 380,000 annually between 2026 and 2028.
6. Which province lost the most population from the immigration slowdown?
Ontario, Canada’s largest province, absorbed the sharpest impact, recording a 0.3 percent quarterly population decline in the fourth quarter of 2025 driven substantially by departing international students, including a loss of 47,511 study permit holders in a single quarter.
7. Which province is growing fastest through internal migration?
Alberta has recorded the largest net interprovincial migration gain for fourteen consecutive quarters, though the pace of that gain has also moderated somewhat compared with 2024.
8. What is Canada’s fertility rate?
Canada’s total fertility rate reached a record low of approximately 1.25 children per woman in 2024, among the lowest fertility rates recorded anywhere in the world.
9. Could Canada’s population decline be revised?
Yes. Statistics Canada has cautioned that preliminary 2025 and 2026 estimates may be revised upward, since growing numbers of work and study permit extensions and longer federal processing times may not be fully reflected in current figures.
10. Is Canada’s population decline permanent?
It is not clear yet. The decline reflects a deliberate, targeted policy reduction in temporary resident numbers rather than a structural demographic collapse, meaning the trajectory will depend heavily on how strictly the government’s 2026 to 2028 immigration targets are implemented and maintained.
Sources
- Statistics Canada, “The Daily — Canada’s population estimates, fourth quarter 2025,” March 18, 2026
- CBC News, “Canada’s population shrank last year — a first for the country, StatsCan says,” March 18, 2026
- Global News, “Canadian population saw 2nd straight drop as 2025 ended: StatCan,” March 19, 2026
- The Globe and Mail, “Outflow of temporary residents drives drop in Canada’s population for third consecutive quarter,” June 17, 2026
- Immigration.ca, “Canada’s Population Falls as Temporary Resident Numbers Decline,” March 2026
- Wikipedia, “Demographics of Canada,” citing Statistics Canada data
