Texas added 391,243 residents between July 2024 and July 2025, more people than any other state, while California lost population for the fifth consecutive year, its estimated decline since 2020 now exceeding 170,000. But the Census Bureau’s Vintage 2025 estimates, released in early 2026, also documented something the familiar Sun Belt migration narrative doesn’t capture: the Midwest was the only US region where every single state gained population, and Ohio and Michigan recorded their best domestic migration numbers in years.
Which States Are Growing Fastest?
South Carolina posted the fastest percentage growth of any state in the country, adding an estimated 79,958 residents between July 2024 and July 2025, a 1.5 percent increase that pushed its population above 5.57 million, making it the 23rd largest state. Idaho followed at 1.4 percent, North Carolina at 1.3 percent, and Texas at 1.2 percent. South Carolina’s growth was driven overwhelmingly by domestic migration; the state gained 66,622 net residents from other states, the primary engine behind its overall population increase.
Fastest-Growing States by Percentage, 2024–2025
| Rank | State | Growth Rate | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Carolina | 1.5% | Domestic migration (+66,622) |
| 2 | Idaho | 1.4% | Domestic migration |
| 3 | North Carolina | 1.3% | Combined domestic and international migration |
| 4 | Texas | 1.2% | Largest absolute gain (+391,243) |
Which States Are Losing Population?
Only five states, California, Hawaii, New Mexico, Vermont, and West Virginia, recorded outright population decline between 2024 and 2025, according to Census Bureau estimates reviewed by the Austin American-Statesman. California’s decline is the most consequential in absolute terms: the state’s population has fallen by more than 170,000 since the 2020 census, even as it remains the nation’s most populous state at 39.3 million.
The Hill’s analysis of the same data noted that only Montana and West Virginia avoided either slower growth or accelerating decline compared with the previous year, indicating the national growth slowdown touched nearly every state in some form.
Domestic Migration Is a Major Divider
The Census Bureau reported that 31 states recorded positive net domestic migration between July 2024 and June 2025, up from 27 states the year before, a broadening of the domestic migration map beyond its traditional Sun Belt concentration.
Census Bureau senior demographer Marc Perry highlighted one of the more notable shifts in the data: “From July 2024 through June 2025, the Midwest also saw positive net domestic migration for the first time this decade,” Perry said, describing the region’s modest net gain of roughly 16,000 people as “a notable turnaround from the substantial domestic migration losses in 2021 and 2022 of -175,000 or greater.”
Ohio and Michigan illustrate this shift concretely. Ohio recorded net domestic migration of 11,926 in 2025, compared with a loss of 32,482 in 2021, while Michigan recorded a net gain of 1,796, compared with a loss of 28,290 in 2021, both states moving from substantial domestic migration losses to modest net gains within a four-year span.
International Migration Changes the Picture
Every state and the District of Columbia recorded lower net international migration in the 2024-2025 period compared with the year before, though levels remained positive nationwide. Florida led all states with 178,674 net international migrants, followed by Texas (167,475), California (109,278), and New York (95,634).
The national decline in international migration, down from 2.7 million to approximately 1.3 million, a fall of 54 percent, directly explains why several states that had relied heavily on international arrivals saw their overall growth soften even where domestic migration remained positive.
Florida’s case is particularly striking. The state’s net domestic migration fell to just 22,517 in 2025, down sharply from 183,646 in 2023 and 310,892 in 2022, a collapse that dropped Florida from its traditional position at or near the top of domestic migration rankings to 8th place nationally, behind even neighboring Alabama, which recorded 23,358 in net domestic migration over the same period.
The Sun Belt’s Population Advantage
Despite the softening in Florida’s domestic migration specifically, Sun Belt states collectively continued to dominate both percentage and absolute population growth. Texas led the nation in raw numeric growth for the third consecutive year, adding 391,243 residents, an increase nearly double Florida’s second-place gain of 196,980. North Carolina followed with 145,907 new residents.
Geographically, many of the fastest-growing counties nationwide clustered along the southeastern coast, spanning Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia; among counties with populations of 20,000 or more, 45 of the 50 fastest-growing counties nationally were located in the South.
Top States by Absolute Population Gain, 2024–2025
| State | Net New Residents |
|---|---|
| Texas | 391,243 |
| Florida | 196,980 |
| North Carolina | 145,907 |
Why Are People Moving?
Multiple independent data sources, the Census Bureau, U-Haul’s Growth Index tracking over 2.5 million one-way truck rental transactions annually, and United Van Lines’ National Movers Study, broadly agree on the general direction of state-level migration even where their specific rankings diverge. U-Haul’s 2025 index ranked Texas the top growth state, up from second place the year before, with Florida climbing to second, followed by North Carolina, Tennessee, and South Carolina.
United Van Lines’ household-move-based study, by contrast, ranked Oregon first for inbound moves at 64.5 percent, a dramatic jump from eighth place the prior year, illustrating that different measurement methods, one-way truck rentals versus full-service household moves, can surface somewhat different leading destinations even while pointing toward similar broader regional trends.
What Is Happening in the Northeast and Midwest?
The Midwest’s emergence as a positive domestic migration region, its first such showing this decade, marks a meaningful break from the pattern of the prior several years, when states like Ohio and Michigan recorded some of the steepest domestic migration losses in the country. This does not mean the Midwest is now outgrowing the Sun Belt; its regional net domestic migration gain of roughly 16,000 remains modest next to Texas’s thirteen-figure numeric lead.
But the shift from substantial net losses to positive net migration in states like Ohio and Michigan suggests the multi-decade narrative of Americans leaving the Midwest for the South and West is not as uniformly one-directional as it has often been portrayed.
Metropolitan Areas Matter More Than State Lines
Growth slowed more sharply within large metropolitan areas than the national figures alone suggest. Census Bureau data on metro, micro, and county-level population showed average metro-area growth falling from 1.1 percent between 2023 and 2024 to just 0.6 percent between 2024 and 2025, a decline the Bureau attributed largely to reduced net international migration rather than any change in net domestic migration losses or natural increase, both of which remained relatively stable year over year. Within Texas specifically, growth was especially pronounced on the outer edges of major metro areas rather than in core urban counties, while border-region metro areas saw notably slower growth than the year before.
The Economic Effects of Population Redistribution
Population growth carries direct consequences for housing demand, labor markets, and infrastructure planning at the state and local level, and the divergence between growth and decline states, five states losing population against 45 states plus the District of Columbia gaining, has become a persistent structural feature of the American population map rather than a temporary post-pandemic anomaly.
States gaining population disproportionately through domestic migration, rather than relying primarily on international arrivals, are also less exposed to the kind of growth volatility the national immigration slowdown just demonstrated it can produce.
What the Regional Population Map Could Look Like Next
Longer-term Census Bureau projection work has for years anticipated continued Southern and Western dominance of US population growth, with Florida, California, and Texas together once projected to account for nearly half of total national growth between 2000 and 2030.
The 2025 data complicates that older projection somewhat, since California’s ongoing decline removes one of those three states from the growth column entirely, while Texas and Florida continue to perform close to or above that earlier projection’s expectations, and the Midwest’s newly positive domestic migration figures suggest at least some rebalancing may be underway that older projection models did not fully anticipate.
Conclusion
The 2025 Census Bureau data confirms the broad outlines of America’s familiar Sun Belt migration story, Texas, Florida, and the Carolinas still lead in growth by nearly every measure, but it also documents a genuine break from recent history in the Midwest, where states that spent years losing residents to domestic migration have swung into positive territory for the first time this decade. Layered on top of both trends is a sharp national decline in international migration that touched every single state, meaning even fast-growing places like Florida are now relying on different sources of growth than they were just two years earlier.
Key Findings
- Texas gained more residents than any other state for the third consecutive year, adding 391,243 people between July 2024 and July 2025, nearly double Florida’s second-place gain of 196,980.
- South Carolina was the fastest-growing state by percentage, at 1.5 percent, driven primarily by domestic migration of 66,622 net new residents.
- Only five states, California, Hawaii, New Mexico, Vermont, and West Virginia, recorded outright population decline between 2024 and 2025.
- The Midwest recorded positive net domestic migration for the first time this decade, with Ohio and Michigan both swinging from substantial losses in 2021 to modest net gains by 2025.
- Florida’s net domestic migration collapsed to 22,517 in 2025 from 310,892 in 2022, dropping the state to 8th place nationally on that specific measure even as its total population growth remained strong due to international migration.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. Which states are gaining the most people?
Texas gained the most residents in absolute terms, adding 391,243 people between 2024 and 2025, while South Carolina led in percentage growth, at 1.5 percent, driven mainly by domestic migration.
2. Which states are losing population?
Only five states recorded outright population decline between 2024 and 2025: California, Hawaii, New Mexico, Vermont, and West Virginia, with California’s decline the largest in absolute terms, exceeding 170,000 since the 2020 census.
3. Why are people moving to Sun Belt states?
Multiple factors are cited across Census, U-Haul, and moving-company data, including job growth, corporate relocations, lower housing costs relative to coastal states, warmer climates, and favorable tax conditions, particularly in Texas and Florida.
4. Is the Midwest gaining or losing population?
The Midwest recorded positive net domestic migration for the first time this decade in the 2024-2025 data, a notable turnaround from losses exceeding 175,000 in 2021 and 2022, though the region’s overall gain remains modest compared with Sun Belt states.
5. How much did international migration affect state growth?
Significantly. Every state saw lower net international migration in 2024-2025 than the year before, contributing to a national growth slowdown even though most states still recorded some positive international migration.
6. Is Florida still the top destination for movers?
Florida remains a top overall growth state due to strong international migration, but its net domestic migration fell sharply to 22,517 in 2025 from 310,892 in 2022, dropping it to 8th place nationally on that specific measure.
7. What state had the fastest percentage population growth in 2025?
South Carolina, at approximately 1.5 percent growth, driven primarily by domestic migration of 66,622 net new residents, pushing its population above 5.57 million.
8. Are big cities growing faster than rural areas?
Growth within large metropolitan areas actually slowed more sharply than the national average, falling from 1.1 percent in 2023-2024 to 0.6 percent in 2024-2025, largely due to reduced international migration into major metro areas.
9. How many states gained population in 2025?
The vast majority: 45 states plus the District of Columbia recorded population growth between 2024 and 2025, while only five states, California, Hawaii, New Mexico, Vermont, and West Virginia, declined.
10. Will Sun Belt growth continue?
Longer-term Census Bureau projections have anticipated continued Southern and Western growth dominance, though the 2025 data’s Midwest domestic migration turnaround and California’s ongoing decline suggest some rebalancing may be underway relative to earlier projection models.
Sources
- U.S. Census Bureau, “U.S. Population Growth Slows Due to Historic Decline in Net International Migration,” press release, 2026
- U.S. Census Bureau, “Slow Growth Impacts Nation’s Largest Counties Hardest,” press release, 2026
- National Association of Realtors, “Top 15 States for Population and Migration Trends in 2025: The South Leads, the Midwest Gains,” February 2026
- The Hill, “The states growing – and shrinking – the fastest, according to Census estimates,” January 2026
- Austin American-Statesman, “Texas population growth 2025: Why it’s highest in the US,” March 2026
- KNSI, “Where Americans are moving in 2026: The cities gaining, and losing, the most residents,” March 2026
