World Population 2029: 8.51 Billion and the Fertility Divide

Searching for World Population 2029 numbers? You are in the right place. This guide answers the question directly, then goes deeper: which countries will gain the most people, which cities will keep expanding, where fertility is collapsing, and where it remains highest. Every figure below is rounded for clarity and sourced from United Nations demographic modeling, so the World Population 2029 estimate you see here is built the same way governments and researchers build theirs.

Unlike a headline number that goes stale the moment it’s published, this World Population 2029 guide is built around durable structures, country rankings, city rankings, continental shares, and fertility extremes that hold their shape year after year, even as the precise figures get refreshed. Treat the number itself as a snapshot and the surrounding analysis as the part worth remembering.

Quick Answer: World Population 2029

The short version: global population in 2029 is projected to reach approximately 8.51 billion people, an increase of roughly 69 million over the prior year. This World Population 2029 estimate comes from the United Nations World Population Prospects (2024 Revision, medium-fertility variant), extrapolated forward using the same growth trajectory confirmed across 2026, 2027, and 2028.

If you only needed the headline figure, that’s it. Everything below unpacks where that number comes from, how confident we can be in it, and what it actually means at the country, city, and regional level.

Where the World Population 2029 Number Comes From

No statistical agency on Earth counts 8.5 billion people one by one. Every World Population 2029 figure you encounter, whether from the UN, World Bank, or an independent tracker, is a model output, not a literal headcount. Models combine:

• The most recent national census results, which anchor the starting point
• Birth and death registry data, which updates the trend year to year
• Migration records, which redistribute population between countries without changing the global total
• Statistical adjustments for countries with incomplete or outdated registration systems

Because different organizations weigh these inputs slightly differently, you will see World Population 2029 figures ranging from roughly 8.45 billion to 8.55 billion depending on the source. That spread is normal. It reflects honest methodological differences, not error.

How Big Is 8.5 Billion, Really?

Numbers at this scale lose meaning without comparison. A World Population 2029 figure of 8.51 billion means:

• Roughly 1 in every 850 humans who have ever lived is alive right now
• The 100 largest cities on Earth combined hold less than 13% of that total
• It took our species over 200,000 years to reach the first billion, and barely 12 years to add the most recent billion
• At the current 0.8% annual growth rate, doubling this number would take about 87 years, compared to just 35 to 40 years during the 1960s growth peak

These comparisons matter more for understanding World Population 2029 than the raw digit count does.

Growth Rate Snapshot

Indicator	2029 Estimate (Rounded)
Total global population	8.51 billion
Annual growth rate	0.8%
Net population added per year	69 million
Net population added per day	189,000
Global median age	31.5 years
Global life expectancy	73.5 years
Share of population living in cities	59%
Countries already shrinking	over 90
Countries below replacement fertility	over 100

Five Forces Shaping World Population 2029

Understanding World Population 2029 means understanding the five forces below, since these same dynamics will keep shaping the global total long after this specific year has passed.

Fertility keeps sliding toward and below replacement level

The global average sits close to 2.2 children per woman, just above the 2.1 replacement threshold. More than half of all tracked countries have already crossed below that line.

Population momentum is still doing heavy lifting

Many countries with below-replacement fertility still post population gains because a large cohort born during higher-fertility decades is still in its reproductive years. This delayed effect means today’s growth often reflects yesterday’s birth rates more than today’s.

People are living longer almost everywhere

Global life expectancy keeps climbing, adding to the total population, independent of how many babies are born.

Africa is doing most of the heavy lifting on growth

A handful of African nations account for a disproportionate share of the net annual global increase, a pattern expected to continue for decades.

Migration is propping up the population in low-fertility economies

Several wealthy nations would already be shrinking without continued immigration, making migration policy an increasingly direct lever on national population trajectories.

Country Rankings: Who Has the Most People

India holds the top spot heading into World Population 2029 projections, with a population edging past 1.5 billion. China sits second at roughly 1.41 billion, and the gap between the two, now exceeding 90 million people, continues widening every year as India keeps growing while China’s population contracts.

The United States remains the third most populous nation in World Population 2029 country rankings, at roughly 354 million, a figure sustained mostly by immigration rather than natural increase, since American fertility sits below replacement level. Indonesia and Pakistan round out the top five.

Below the top tier, the most important structural story is which countries are climbing the rankings versus which are falling. Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, and Tanzania are all moving up, while Russia, Japan, Germany, and several Eastern European nations are quietly losing ground each year as deaths outpace births.

Top 100 Countries with the Largest Population in 2029 (Estimated Figures)

#	Country	Population
1	India	1.51 billion
2	China	1.41 billion
3	United States	354 million
4	Indonesia	295 million
5	Pakistan	271 million
6	Nigeria	258 million
7	Brazil	216 million
8	Bangladesh	184 million
9	Ethiopia	150 million
10	Russia	142 million
11	Mexico	136 million
12	DR Congo	128 million
13	Egypt	126 million
14	Japan	120 million
15	Philippines	122 million
16	Vietnam	104 million
17	Iran	95 million
18	Turkey	89 million
19	Germany	83 million
20	Tanzania	79 million
21	United Kingdom	71 million
22	Thailand	71 million
23	South Africa	68 million
24	France	67 million
25	Kenya	63 million
26	Italy	58 million
27	Uganda	58 million
28	Myanmar	56 million
29	Sudan	57 million
30	Colombia	55 million
31	South Korea	51 million
32	Iraq	51 million
33	Algeria	50 million
34	Spain	48 million
35	Afghanistan	49 million
36	Argentina	47 million
37	Yemen	46 million
38	Angola	45 million
39	Canada	41 million
40	Morocco	39 million
41	Uzbekistan	40 million
42	Mozambique	41 million
43	Ukraine	38 million
44	Poland	38 million
45	Ghana	38 million
46	Malaysia	37 million
47	Saudi Arabia	37 million
48	Madagascar	36 million
49	Peru	35 million
50	Côte d’Ivoire	36 million
51	Cameroon	33 million
52	Niger	33 million
53	Nepal	30 million
54	Venezuela	29 million
55	Syria	28 million
56	Mali	29 million
57	Australia	28 million
58	North Korea	27 million
59	Burkina Faso	27 million
60	Zambia	25 million
61	Malawi	25 million
62	Sri Lanka	23 million
63	Chad	24 million
64	Taiwan	23 million
65	Somalia	23 million
66	Kazakhstan	22 million
67	Senegal	21 million
68	Chile	20 million
69	Guatemala	20 million
70	Ecuador	19 million
71	Netherlands	19 million
72	Romania	19 million
73	Cambodia	19 million
74	Zimbabwe	19 million
75	Guinea	16 million
76	Rwanda	16 million
77	Benin	17 million
78	Burundi	16 million
79	South Sudan	14 million
80	Bolivia	13 million
81	Tunisia	13 million
82	Haiti	12 million
83	United Arab Emirates	12 million
84	Jordan	12 million
85	Belgium	12 million
86	Dominican Republic	12 million
87	Tajikistan	12 million
88	Honduras	12 million
89	Papua New Guinea	11 million
90	Sweden	11 million
91	Cuba	11 million
92	Azerbaijan	11 million
93	Czechia	11 million
94	Togo	11 million
95	Portugal	10 million
96	Israel	10 million
97	Greece	10 million
98	Hungary	9 million
99	Sierra Leone	9 million
100	Austria	9 million

Figures rounded. Source: UN World Population Prospects (2024 Revision), medium-fertility variant, extrapolated to 2029 from the confirmed 2026 to 2028 trajectory.

City Rankings: Where People Actually Cluster

A World Population 2029 picture would be incomplete without looking at cities, since urban agglomerations capture human concentration far better than national borders do. Tokyo remains the largest metro area on the planet in World Population 2029 city data, though its growth has essentially flattened. Delhi is closing in fast, growing at a pace that could see it overtake Tokyo within the next several years if current trends hold.

The clearest pattern in city-level data is regional divergence. Established megacities across East Asia, Tokyo, Osaka, and Seoul, are growing slowly or even shrinking slightly. Meanwhile, cities across South Asia and Africa are expanding rapidly. Kinshasa stands out in particular, posting some of the fastest urban growth anywhere on the planet as the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s broader population boom plays out at the city scale.

Top 100 Cities with the Largest Population in 2029 (Estimated Figures)

#	City	Country	Population
1	Tokyo	Japan	37 million
2	Delhi	India	37 million
3	Shanghai	China	31 million
4	Dhaka	Bangladesh	26 million
5	Cairo	Egypt	25 million
6	Kinshasa	DR Congo	22 million
7	São Paulo	Brazil	23 million
8	Mexico City	Mexico	23 million
9	Beijing	China	23 million
10	Mumbai	India	24 million
11	Lagos	Nigeria	20 million
12	Karachi	Pakistan	20 million
13	Osaka	Japan	19 million
14	Chongqing	China	19 million
15	Istanbul	Turkey	17 million
16	Lahore	Pakistan	17 million
17	Kolkata	India	16 million
18	Buenos Aires	Argentina	16 million
19	Bangalore	India	17 million
20	Manila	Philippines	16 million
21	Guangzhou	China	16 million
22	Tianjin	China	15 million
23	Rio de Janeiro	Brazil	14 million
24	Shenzhen	China	14 million
25	Chennai	India	13 million
26	Moscow	Russia	13 million
27	Jakarta	Indonesia	12 million
28	Bogotá	Colombia	12 million
29	Hyderabad	India	12 million
30	Lima	Peru	12 million
31	Bangkok	Thailand	12 million
32	Luanda	Angola	12 million
33	Paris	France	11 million
34	Nanjing	China	10 million
35	Ho Chi Minh City	Vietnam	10 million
36	Chengdu	China	10 million
37	Seoul	South Korea	10 million
38	London	United Kingdom	10 million
39	Tehran	Iran	10 million
40	Dar es Salaam	Tanzania	10 million
41	Ahmedabad	India	9.8 million
42	Nagoya	Japan	9.5 million
43	Xi’an	China	9.6 million
44	Kuala Lumpur	Malaysia	9.6 million
45	Wuhan	China	9.3 million
46	Surat	India	9.3 million
47	Suzhou	China	9 million
48	Hangzhou	China	8.9 million
49	Baghdad	Iraq	8.8 million
50	New York City	United States	8.4 million
51	Riyadh	Saudi Arabia	8.5 million
52	Shenyang	China	8.2 million
53	Pune	India	8.1 million
54	Foshan	China	7.9 million
55	Dongguan	China	8 million
56	Hong Kong	Hong Kong (China)	7.8 million
57	Khartoum	Sudan	7.6 million
58	Harbin	China	7.3 million
59	Santiago	Chile	7.1 million
60	Addis Ababa	Ethiopia	7.2 million
61	Madrid	Spain	6.9 million
62	Johannesburg	South Africa	6.8 million
63	Toronto	Canada	6.7 million
64	Abidjan	Côte d’Ivoire	6.8 million
65	Dalian	China	6.5 million
66	Belo Horizonte	Brazil	6.5 million
67	Nairobi	Kenya	6.6 million
68	Qingdao	China	6.4 million
69	Zhengzhou	China	6.4 million
70	Singapore	Singapore	6.3 million
71	Jinan	China	6.3 million
72	Yangon	Myanmar	6.1 million
73	Chittagong	Bangladesh	6.2 million
74	Alexandria	Egypt	6.1 million
75	Hanoi	Vietnam	6 million
76	Kabul	Afghanistan	5.6 million
77	Barcelona	Spain	5.9 million
78	Yaoundé	Cameroon	5.6 million
79	Ankara	Turkey	5.8 million
80	Guadalajara	Mexico	5.8 million
81	Saint Petersburg	Russia	5.6 million
82	Melbourne	Australia	5.7 million
83	Fukuoka	Japan	5.5 million
84	Sydney	Australia	5.5 million
85	Monterrey	Mexico	5.4 million
86	Cape Town	South Africa	5.3 million
87	Jeddah	Saudi Arabia	5.3 million
88	Changsha	China	5.3 million
89	Urumqi	China	5.3 million
90	Kano	Nigeria	5.3 million
91	Brasília	Brazil	5.2 million
92	Kunming	China	5.1 million
93	Hefei	China	5.1 million
94	Changchun	China	5.1 million
95	Ningbo	China	5 million
96	Shantou	China	4.9 million
97	Tel Aviv	Israel	4.8 million
98	Shijiazhuang	China	4.7 million
99	New Taipei	Taiwan	4.6 million
100	Kozhikode	India	4.7 million

Figures rounded. Source: UN World Urbanization Prospects, extrapolated to 2029 from confirmed urban growth trends.

Estimated Continental Breakdown of Population in 2029

Asia continues to anchor World Population 2029 totals, holding close to 58% of humanity within its borders. The table below breaks the full World Population 2029 total into its seven continental components.

Continent	Population	Share
Asia	4.97 billion	~58.3%
Africa	1.69 billion	~19.9%
Europe	736 million	~8.6%
North America	608 million	~7.1%
South America	444 million	~5.2%
Oceania	48 million	~0.6%
Antarctica	No permanent population	—

Africa’s share continues climbing year over year, a trend that has held consistently since the mid-20th century and shows no sign of reversing within this decade.

Fertility Extremes: Where Birth Rates Sit Highest and Lowest

A useful way to round out any World Population 2029 analysis is to look at the edges of the fertility distribution, since these extremes explain most of the regional divergence described above. These fertility patterns are the single biggest driver behind every World Population 2029 country and city ranking shown earlier.

Highest Fertility Rates (Top 20 Countries) (Estimated Figures)

#	Country	Children per Woman
1	Niger	5.9
2	Chad	5.8
3	Somalia	5.7
4	DR Congo	5.6
5	Central African Republic	5.3
6	Mali	5.2
7	Angola	4.8
8	Nigeria	4.4
9	Burundi	4.3
10	South Sudan	4.2
11	Uganda	4.1
12	Benin	4.1
13	Burkina Faso	4.0
14	Mozambique	4.0
15	Guinea	3.9
16	Cameroon	3.8
17	Afghanistan	3.8
18	Sierra Leone	3.7
19	Senegal	3.6
20	Yemen	3.6

Lowest Fertility Rates (Top 20 Countries) (Estimated Figures)

#	Country	Children per Woman
1	Macao (China)	0.6
2	South Korea	0.65
3	Hong Kong (China)	0.7
4	Taiwan	0.8
5	Singapore	0.85
6	China	0.95
7	Puerto Rico	1.0
8	Ukraine	1.0
9	Italy	1.1
10	Spain	1.1
11	Japan	1.15
12	Poland	1.15
13	Greece	1.2
14	Malta	1.2
15	Cyprus	1.2
16	Thailand	1.2
17	Bosnia and Herzegovina	1.2
18	Finland	1.25
19	Canada	1.25
20	Portugal	1.3

Figures rounded. Source: UN World Population Prospects (2024 Revision) fertility projections, extrapolated to reflect continued gradual decline through 2029.

What World Population 2029 Tells Us About the Decade Ahead

Stepping back from individual figures, the World Population 2029 snapshot fits cleanly inside a larger arc. The world crossed 8 billion in November 2022, will likely cross 9 billion sometime in the mid-2030s, and is expected to keep growing, at a steadily slowing pace, until a peak somewhere between the mid-2060s and 2100, most plausibly in the 2080s, around 10.3 to 10.4 billion.

A few structural facts are worth holding onto regardless of which year you’re checking these numbers:

• India’s lead over China will keep widening, not narrowing, for the foreseeable future.
• Africa will keep contributing a disproportionate share of net global growth, driven by both high fertility and a young population already in or entering reproductive age.
• More countries will join the list of nations with shrinking populations each year, a list that already includes over 90 countries and continues to expand.
• The gap between the highest and lowest fertility countries on Earth, currently spanning from below 1 child per woman to nearly 6, is wider than at almost any point in recorded demographic history.

Closing Summary

World Population 2029 lands at approximately 8.51 billion people, continuing a trend that is simultaneously historic in scale and increasingly modest in pace. Anyone researching World Population 2029 should walk away with two things: the headline figure and the structural forces behind it.

The structural forces behind this number, falling fertility nearly everywhere, population momentum sustaining growth in places that have already crossed below replacement level, Africa’s outsized contribution to net increase, and a growing list of shrinking nations, are durable enough to remain accurate descriptions of the world for years beyond this single annual figure.

Common Questions About World Population 2029

What will the world population be in 2029?

Approximately 8.51 billion people, based on UN medium-variant projections extrapolated from the confirmed 2026 to 2028 trajectory.

How much will the population grow in 2029 compared to 2028?

By roughly 69 million people, consistent with the 0.8% annual growth rate the world has maintained in recent years.

Will India still be the most populous country in 2029?

Yes. India’s lead over China, already past 90 million people, is projected to continue widening.

What is the fastest-growing country by population in 2029?

Several Sub-Saharan African nations, including Niger, Chad, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, post the highest population growth rates, driven by fertility rates well above the global average.

How many countries have a shrinking population in 2029?

More than 90 countries, concentrated heavily in Europe and East Asia, are projected to see population decline.

Is the global population growth rate still slowing down?

Yes, the rate continues its multi-decade decline, sitting at roughly 0.8% annually compared to over 2% in the 1960s.

Why might World Population 2029 figures differ slightly between websites?

Different sources use different baseline datasets, update schedules, and UN fertility variants (low, medium, or high), which produce small but expected variation in reported totals.

This guide reflects United Nations World Population Prospects (2024 Revision) data, extrapolated to 2029 from confirmed trends, and is reviewed periodically as newer UN projections become available.