World Population 2028: 8.44 Billion People Across 100 Countries

Every year, millions of people search for the same question: what will the world population be next year? The reasons vary: students writing reports, businesses planning market expansion, journalists covering demographic shifts, researchers studying long-range trends, but the underlying need is the same: a reliable, well-sourced answer that goes beyond a single headline number.

This guide breaks down what the United Nations and major demographic trackers currently project for the world population in 2028, why that number keeps climbing even as growth slows year over year, and which countries and regions are driving the change. It also explains how population projections actually work, a layer of understanding that matters more than memorizing any single figure, since the figure itself will be revised as new data arrives.

A note on how to read this article: population numbers for any future year are projections, not finalized counts. They are built from the United Nations World Population Prospects, the most authoritative demographic dataset available, refreshed every two years using updated census results, birth and death registries, and migration records from nearly every country on Earth. As newer data becomes available, these projections shift, usually by small margins. This article is reviewed and updated periodically to reflect the latest available estimates, so the structure, methodology, and explanatory sections here remain useful well beyond a single calendar year, even as the specific figures get refreshed.

By the end of this guide, you will understand the projected global population total for 2028, how it breaks down by country, city, and continent, which nations have the highest and lowest birth rates, what is driving growth in some regions while others shrink, and how to evaluate population projections critically, a skill that holds up regardless of which year you’re reading this in.

How Many People Will Be in the World in 2028

Based on United Nations World Population Prospects (2024 Revision, medium-fertility variant) and consistent with the trajectory confirmed for 2026 and 2027, the global population is projected to reach approximately 8.44 billion people in 2028. This reflects an increase of roughly 69 to 70 million people compared to the prior year, in line with the steady, gradually decelerating growth pattern the world has followed for several decades.

This figure sits within a broader, well-established trajectory that the UN’s medium-variant projection, considered the single most likely scenario among the high, medium, and low variants it publishes, has consistently tracked:

• Crossing 8.5 billion around 2030
• Reaching roughly 9 billion by the mid-2030s
• Approaching 9.7 to 9.8 billion by 2050
• Peaking somewhere between 10.3 and 10.4 billion in the 2080s
• Beginning a slow decline after that peak, continuing through the end of the century

It’s worth repeating a structural point that applies to every population figure, not just this one: no population number for a future year, or even the current year, is ever a literal headcount. All population statistics, including those reported by national governments, are modeled estimates built from the best available data. Understanding this distinction is more valuable than memorizing any single projection, since it’s the lens through which every population statistic should be read, regardless of the year.

Why Population Figures Differ Slightly Between Sources

If you compare population numbers across different reputable websites, you’ll often notice they don’t match exactly. This is normal and expected, not a sign that any particular source is wrong. A few factors explain the variation:

Different baseline datasets

Some trackers use the UN’s medium-variant projections directly. Others blend UN data with World Bank estimates, national statistical agency releases, or their own interpolation models.

Different update cycles

The UN refreshes its full World Population Prospects dataset roughly every two years. Independent trackers update live counters continuously between those official releases, which can create small drifts from the underlying UN baseline.

Rounding and methodology choices

Some sources round to the nearest million; others carry full precision to the individual digit, which can create the illusion of more certainty than actually exists.

Variant selection

The UN itself publishes low-, medium-, and high-fertility variants. A source quoting the high-variant scenario will show meaningfully higher numbers than one using the medium variant, even though both are technically “UN projections.”

The practical takeaway: when you see a population figure for any given year, check whether it cites its source and methodology. A figure sourced to “UN WPP 2024 Revision, medium variant” is more trustworthy and reproducible than an unsourced number, regardless of which specific website is reporting it.

Global Growth Rate and What’s Driving It

The global population growth rate is projected to continue its multi-decade decline, settling at approximately 0.8% per year in 2028, down from a peak of over 2% in the mid-1960s. This deceleration is one of the most consistent and well-documented trends in modern demography, and it is expected to continue for the foreseeable future regardless of which specific year you’re checking this figure.

Three forces are driving the slowdown:

Falling fertility rates

The global average has dropped from roughly 5 children per woman in the 1960s to about 2.2 to 2.3 today, edging closer to the replacement level of 2.1. More than half of all countries, 99 out of 194 tracked by the UN, already sit below replacement level. Fertility decline tends to follow a predictable pattern as countries develop economically, expand girls’ education, and improve access to family planning, so this trend is unlikely to reverse on a global scale even as individual countries see short-term fluctuations.

Population momentum

Even in countries where fertility has already dropped to or below replacement level, the population can keep growing for a generation or more. This happens because a large existing cohort of young people, born during a higher-fertility era, is still moving through their reproductive years. This lag effect means current growth is partly an echo of past fertility patterns, not just present-day birth rates.

Rising life expectancy

Global life expectancy at birth has climbed to roughly 73 years and continues rising, projected to reach around 77 years by the mid-2050s, particularly as lower-income regions catch up to global health standards. Longer lives add to the total population independent of birth rates.

These three forces interact differently across regions, which is why global averages mask enormous variation, a theme worth keeping in mind as you read the country and city data below.

Population by Region: Where Growth Is Concentrated

Asia remains the most populous continent by a wide margin, home to roughly 4.9 billion people, just under 58% of all humanity. But the more important story for understanding future decades is happening in Africa.

Africa is home to over 1.6 billion people and is, by a wide margin, the fastest-growing continent on Earth, with a projected regional growth rate above 2% annually, more than double the global average. Sub-Saharan Africa alone accounts for a large and growing share of the annual global population increase. Nine countries are expected to account for more than half of all global population growth between now and 2050: India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Indonesia, Egypt, and the United States. Five of those nine are in Africa.

The Americas, combined, hold just over 1 billion people, with growth concentrated in Latin America even as fertility rates there continue falling toward replacement level.

Europe continues a structural pattern of population stagnation and, in many countries, outright decline. Roughly two-thirds of European countries are expected to see their populations shrink between now and the end of the century, driven by sustained below-replacement fertility.

Southern Asia remains the single most densely populated sub-region in the world, home to over 2.1 billion people when India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and their neighbors are combined, more than a quarter of all humans on the planet living in this one sub-region alone.

This regional divergence, explosive growth in parts of Africa, plateau and gentle decline across East Asia and Europe, moderate growth in the Americas, is the defining demographic story of the current era and will likely remain so for several decades, making it a reliable anchor point for understanding population trends regardless of the specific year.

India, China, and the New Demographic Order

One of the most significant demographic shifts of recent years was India overtaking China as the world’s most populous nation, a transition that occurred around 2023 and has continued widening since. India’s population is approaching 1.5 billion, compared to China’s roughly 1.4 billion, a gap of close to 90 million people that is expected to keep growing in the coming years.

China’s population is now in structural decline, a direct legacy of decades of low fertility following its one-child policy era, combined with continued low birth rates even after that policy was relaxed and later abolished. China’s fertility rate has fallen to around 1.0 children per woman, among the lowest in the world. Japan, South Korea, and several Eastern European nations face similar dynamics, aging populations, shrinking workforces, and growing pressure on pension and healthcare systems.

India, meanwhile, continues to add population each year, though its national fertility rate has fallen close to or below replacement level, with significant variation between states. India’s demographic profile, a large, relatively young population entering working age, is often cited as a potential long-term economic advantage, provided the country can generate enough jobs and infrastructure to absorb that workforce.

Looking further out, Nigeria is projected to eventually overtake the United States as the world’s third most populous country, a shift expected sometime around 2047, as Nigeria’s young, fast-growing population continues expanding while U.S. growth remains comparatively modest and increasingly dependent on immigration.

Top 100 Countries by Projected Population (Rounded)

The table below shows the projected population for the top 100 countries, rounded to the nearest convenient unit for readability. Figures are based on United Nations World Population Prospects (2024 Revision, medium-fertility variant) and reflect the continued trajectory confirmed across 2026 and 2027 estimates. This table is reviewed and refreshed periodically as updated UN data becomes available.

Rank	Country	Projected Population (Rounded)
1	India	1.50 billion
2	China	1.41 billion
3	United States	353 million
4	Indonesia	293 million
5	Pakistan	268 million
6	Nigeria	252 million
7	Brazil	215 million
8	Bangladesh	182 million
9	Russia	143 million
10	Ethiopia	146 million
11	Mexico	135 million
12	Egypt	124 million
13	Japan	121 million
14	DR Congo	124 million
15	Philippines	120 million
16	Vietnam	103 million
17	Iran	94 million
18	Turkey	88 million
19	Germany	83 million
20	Tanzania	77 million
21	Thailand	71 million
22	United Kingdom	71 million
23	France	67 million
24	South Africa	67 million
25	Kenya	61 million
26	Italy	58 million
27	Myanmar	56 million
28	Sudan	56 million
29	Uganda	56 million
30	Colombia	55 million
31	South Korea	51 million
32	Iraq	50 million
33	Algeria	49 million
34	Spain	48 million
35	Afghanistan	47 million
36	Argentina	46 million
37	Yemen	45 million
38	Canada	41 million
39	Angola	43 million
40	Ukraine	38 million
41	Morocco	39 million
42	Uzbekistan	39 million
43	Mozambique	39 million
44	Poland	38 million
45	Malaysia	37 million
46	Ghana	37 million
47	Saudi Arabia	36 million
48	Peru	35 million
49	Madagascar	35 million
50	Côte d’Ivoire	35 million
51	Cameroon	32 million
52	Niger	31 million
53	Nepal	30 million
54	Venezuela	29 million
55	Australia	28 million
56	Syria	28 million
57	North Korea	27 million
58	Mali	28 million
59	Burkina Faso	26 million
60	Sri Lanka	23 million
61	Zambia	24 million
62	Malawi	24 million
63	Taiwan	23 million
64	Chad	23 million
65	Kazakhstan	21 million
66	Somalia	22 million
67	Chile	20 million
68	Senegal	21 million
69	Guatemala	19 million
70	Ecuador	19 million
71	Netherlands	19 million
72	Romania	19 million
73	Cambodia	18 million
74	Zimbabwe	18 million
75	Guinea	16 million
76	Benin	16 million
77	Rwanda	16 million
78	Burundi	16 million
79	South Sudan	13 million
80	Bolivia	13 million
81	Haiti	12 million
82	Tunisia	13 million
83	Jordan	12 million
84	United Arab Emirates	12 million
85	Belgium	12 million
86	Dominican Republic	12 million
87	Honduras	12 million
88	Papua New Guinea	11 million
89	Tajikistan	12 million
90	Sweden	11 million
91	Cuba	11 million
92	Azerbaijan	11 million
93	Czechia	11 million
94	Togo	10 million
95	Portugal	10 million
96	Greece	10 million
97	Israel	10 million
98	Hungary	9 million
99	Sierra Leone	9 million
100	Austria	9 million

Source: United Nations World Population Prospects (2024 Revision), medium-fertility variant, extrapolated to 2028 from confirmed 2026 and 2027 trajectories. Figures are rounded to the nearest convenient unit and will shift modestly as the UN releases updated revisions.

The Countries Driving Most of the World’s Growth

A relatively small number of countries account for the majority of the global population increase each year. Understanding this concentration helps explain why global trends can feel disconnected from the experience of any single country; growth is not evenly distributed, it is heavily clustered.

The countries currently contributing the most to annual global population growth include India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Indonesia, Egypt, and the United States. Five of these nine are in Africa, underscoring the continent’s outsized role in shaping the next several decades of global demographic change.

At the other end of the spectrum, a growing number of countries are already losing population. Around 90 countries are expected to shrink between now and the end of the century, with roughly two-thirds of European nations among them. China, Japan, South Korea, Russia, Italy, and several Eastern European countries are already experiencing year-over-year population decline, driven primarily by sustained below-replacement fertility rather than any single event.

Where People Actually Live: Top Cities

Population concentration shows up just as clearly at the city level as it does at the country level. Urban agglomerations, metro areas that include a core city plus its connected suburbs, capture the real scale of where people live and work far better than narrow city-limit boundaries.

Tokyo remains the world’s largest urban agglomeration, with a metro population approaching 37 million, though its growth rate has flattened and even turned slightly negative in recent years as Japan’s broader demographic decline plays out at the city level too. Delhi has closed the gap significantly and continues growing at one of the fastest rates among the largest cities, putting it on a path to potentially overtake Tokyo within the coming years. Shanghai, Dhaka, and Cairo round out the next tier, each home to over 23 million people.

A clear regional pattern emerges among the largest cities: established East Asian megacities like Tokyo, Osaka, and Seoul are growing slowly or shrinking, while cities across South Asia and Africa, including Delhi, Karachi, Kinshasa, and Lagos, continue expanding rapidly, often by 3 to 5% per year, driven by both natural population growth and continued rural-to-urban migration. Kinshasa in particular stands out, growing faster than nearly any other major city in the world as the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s population boom translates directly into urban expansion.

This divergence mirrors the broader country-level story: population growth in the coming decades will be increasingly concentrated in Africa and South Asia, both nationally and within their fastest-growing cities.

Top 100 Cities by Population (Estimated Figures)

Rank	City	Country	Population (Rounded)
1	Tokyo	Japan	37 million
2	Delhi	India	36 million
3	Shanghai	China	31 million
4	Dhaka	Bangladesh	26 million
5	Cairo	Egypt	24 million
6	São Paulo	Brazil	23 million
7	Mexico City	Mexico	23 million
8	Beijing	China	23 million
9	Mumbai	India	23 million
10	Kinshasa	DR Congo	20 million
11	Osaka	Japan	19 million
12	Chongqing	China	19 million
13	Karachi	Pakistan	19 million
14	Lagos	Nigeria	19 million
15	Istanbul	Turkey	17 million
16	Kolkata	India	16 million
17	Buenos Aires	Argentina	16 million
18	Manila	Philippines	16 million
19	Lahore	Pakistan	16 million
20	Guangzhou	China	15 million
21	Bangalore	India	16 million
22	Tianjin	China	15 million
23	Rio de Janeiro	Brazil	14 million
24	Shenzhen	China	14 million
25	Chennai	India	13 million
26	Moscow	Russia	13 million
27	Bogotá	Colombia	12 million
28	Jakarta	Indonesia	12 million
29	Hyderabad	India	12 million
30	Lima	Peru	12 million
31	Bangkok	Thailand	12 million
32	Paris	France	11 million
33	Luanda	Angola	11 million
34	Nanjing	China	10 million
35	Chengdu	China	10 million
36	Ho Chi Minh City	Vietnam	10 million
37	Seoul	South Korea	10 million
38	London	United Kingdom	10 million
39	Tehran	Iran	10 million
40	Nagoya	Japan	9.5 million
41	Xi’an	China	9.5 million
42	Ahmedabad	India	9.5 million
43	Kuala Lumpur	Malaysia	9.4 million
44	Wuhan	China	9.2 million
45	Dar es Salaam	Tanzania	9.7 million
46	Surat	India	9 million
47	Suzhou	China	8.9 million
48	Hangzhou	China	8.8 million
49	Baghdad	Iraq	8.6 million
50	New York City	United States	8.4 million
51	Riyadh	Saudi Arabia	8.3 million
52	Shenyang	China	8.1 million
53	Foshan	China	7.9 million
54	Dongguan	China	7.9 million
55	Hong Kong	Hong Kong (China)	7.8 million
56	Pune	India	7.9 million
57	Harbin	China	7.2 million
58	Khartoum	Sudan	7.3 million
59	Santiago	Chile	7.1 million
60	Madrid	Spain	6.8 million
61	Johannesburg	South Africa	6.7 million
62	Toronto	Canada	6.6 million
63	Dalian	China	6.5 million
64	Belo Horizonte	Brazil	6.4 million
65	Addis Ababa	Ethiopia	6.7 million
66	Qingdao	China	6.3 million
67	Zhengzhou	China	6.3 million
68	Abidjan	Côte d’Ivoire	6.5 million
69	Singapore	Singapore	6.2 million
70	Jinan	China	6.2 million
71	Nairobi	Kenya	6.3 million
72	Yangon	Myanmar	6 million
73	Alexandria	Egypt	6 million
74	Chittagong	Bangladesh	6 million
75	Hanoi	Vietnam	5.9 million
76	Barcelona	Spain	5.8 million
77	Guadalajara	Mexico	5.7 million
78	Ankara	Turkey	5.7 million
79	Saint Petersburg	Russia	5.6 million
80	Melbourne	Australia	5.6 million
81	Fukuoka	Japan	5.5 million
82	Sydney	Australia	5.4 million
83	Monterrey	Mexico	5.3 million
84	Changsha	China	5.2 million
85	Urumqi	China	5.2 million
86	Jeddah	Saudi Arabia	5.2 million
87	Cape Town	South Africa	5.2 million
88	Kabul	Afghanistan	5.3 million
89	Yaoundé	Cameroon	5.3 million
90	Kunming	China	5 million
91	Brasília	Brazil	5.1 million
92	Changchun	China	5 million
93	Hefei	China	5 million
94	Ningbo	China	4.9 million
95	Kano	Nigeria	5 million
96	Shantou	China	4.8 million
97	Tel Aviv	Israel	4.7 million
98	Shijiazhuang	China	4.6 million
99	New Taipei	Taiwan	4.6 million
100	Kozhikode	India	4.6 million

Source: UN World Urbanization Prospects, extrapolated to 2028 from confirmed urban agglomeration growth rates. Figures rounded for readability.

Population by Continent (Estimated Figures)

Continent	Projected Population (Rounded)	Share of the World
Asia	4.94 billion	~58.5%
Africa	1.65 billion	~19.5%
Europe	738 million	~8.7%
North America	605 million	~7.2%
South America	442 million	~5.2%
Oceania	47 million	<1%
Antarctica	No permanent population	—

Birth Rate Extremes: Highest and Lowest Fertility Countries

Global fertility data continues to show one of the widest gaps in modern demographic history. On one end, several Sub-Saharan African nations maintain fertility rates above 5 children per woman. On the other hand, a cluster of East Asian and Southern European economies has settled below 1 child per woman, a level demographers consider a serious long-term threat to population stability without sustained immigration.

Top 20 Highest Birth Rate Countries (Estimated Figures)

Rank	Country	Fertility Rate (Rounded)
1	Niger	6.0 children/woman
2	Chad	6.0 children/woman
3	Somalia	5.8 children/woman
4	DR Congo	5.7 children/woman
5	Central African Republic	5.4 children/woman
6	Mali	5.4 children/woman
7	Angola	4.9 children/woman
8	Nigeria	4.5 children/woman
9	Burundi	4.4 children/woman
10	South Sudan	4.3 children/woman
11	Uganda	4.2 children/woman
12	Benin	4.2 children/woman
13	Mozambique	4.1 children/woman
14	Burkina Faso	4.1 children/woman
15	Guinea	4.0 children/woman
16	Cameroon	3.9 children/woman
17	Afghanistan	3.9 children/woman
18	Sierra Leone	3.8 children/woman
19	Yemen	3.7 children/woman
20	Senegal	3.7 children/woman

Top 20 Lowest Birth Rate Countries (Estimated Figures)

Rank	Country	Fertility Rate (Rounded)
1	Macao (China)	0.65 children/woman
2	South Korea	0.7 children/woman
3	Hong Kong (China)	0.7 children/woman
4	Taiwan	0.8 children/woman
5	Singapore	0.9 children/woman
6	China	1.0 children/woman
7	Puerto Rico	1.0 children/woman
8	Ukraine	1.05 children/woman
9	Italy	1.15 children/woman
10	Spain	1.15 children/woman
11	Japan	1.2 children/woman
12	Poland	1.2 children/woman
13	Greece	1.2 children/woman
14	Malta	1.25 children/woman
15	Cyprus	1.25 children/woman
16	Thailand	1.25 children/woman
17	Bosnia and Herzegovina	1.25 children/woman
18	Finland	1.3 children/woman
19	Canada	1.3 children/woman
20	Portugal	1.3 children/woman

Source: UN World Population Prospects (2024 Revision) fertility data, extrapolated to reflect the continued gradual decline observed across 2026 and 2027. Figures rounded to the nearest 0.05 for readability.

Population Milestones to Watch

A handful of demographic milestones are useful anchor points for understanding where the world stands, regardless of which specific year you’re reading this:

India’s lead over China keeps widening

The population gap between the two countries, already approaching 90 million, is expected to grow each year as India continues adding population while China’s decline continues.

The 9 billion threshold approaches

After taking just 12 years to grow from 7 to 8 billion (reached in November 2022), the world is on pace to take roughly 15 years to reach 9 billion, a clear signal of decelerating growth, expected sometime in the mid-2030s.

Peak population draws closer in projection terms, if not in calendar terms

Current projections place the global population peak somewhere between the mid-2060s and 2100, with the most likely scenario centered in the 2080s at around 10.3 to 10.4 billion people. The UN estimates an 80% probability that the global population will peak at some point this century.

The shrinking-countries list keeps growing

Roughly 1 in 4 people today already live in a country where the population has already peaked and begun declining. This share is expected to keep climbing through the 2030s and beyond.

The age structure of humanity is quietly shifting

By the mid-2030s, the number of people aged 80 and older is projected to exceed the number of newborns globally for the first time in recorded history, a milestone with profound implications for healthcare systems, labor markets, and social support structures.

These milestones provide a stable narrative framework that holds up across multiple years of updates, making them reliable anchors for understanding demographic change regardless of which specific year’s figures you’re working with.

How Reliable Are Multi-Year Population Projections?

Population projections, particularly the UN’s medium-variant estimates, have historically been quite accurate at the global level, typically within a percentage point or two of actual outcomes a decade or more out. This reliability comes from a simple structural fact: most of the people who will be alive in any given near-future year are already alive today, which dramatically narrows the range of plausible outcomes compared to, say, economic or financial forecasting.

That said, projections do get revised. The most recent UN revision actually lowered long-term population estimates compared to a decade earlier, primarily because fertility rates in several of the world’s most populous countries fell faster than previously modeled. This is a useful reminder: even well-established projections are best understood as the most likely scenario among several plausible ones, not a fixed certainty.

For this reason, the most durable way to engage with population statistics is to understand the underlying drivers, fertility, mortality, migration, and momentum, rather than memorizing a single number that will shift slightly with each new data release.

Conclusion

World population in 2028 is projected to reach roughly 8.44 billion, continuing a long-running pattern of growth that remains substantial in absolute terms but steadily decelerates in percentage terms. India’s lead over China continues to widen, Africa remains the primary engine of future global growth, and an increasing number of countries, particularly across Europe and East Asia, are already shrinking.

These underlying dynamics, falling fertility, population momentum, aging in wealthy nations, and rapid growth concentrated in a handful of developing countries, are unlikely to change dramatically from one year to the next. That structural stability is what makes population trends worth understanding deeply rather than reducing to a single static number: the specific figures will update with each new UN revision, but the forces shaping them will remain recognizable for years to come.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the projected world population for 2028?

Based on the latest UN World Population Prospects medium-variant trajectory, the global population is expected to reach approximately 8.44 billion, though this figure is refined periodically as newer data becomes available.

Which country has the largest population?

India holds the top position, with a projected population approaching 1.5 billion, having overtaken China in 2023.

Is global population growth slowing down?

Yes. The annual growth rate has been declining for decades and currently sits at roughly 0.8%, down from a peak of over 2% in the mid-1960s.

When will the global population reach 9 billion?

Current projections place this milestone in the mid-2030s, roughly 15 years after the world passed 8 billion in November 2022.

Which continent is growing fastest?

Africa, by a substantial margin, is driven by the highest fertility rates and youngest population structure of any region, with a regional growth rate exceeding 2% annually.

Which country has the highest birth rate?

Niger and Chad currently lead globally, each with a fertility rate of around 6.0 children per woman.

Which country has the lowest birth rate?

Macao and South Korea sit at the bottom of the global ranking, with fertility rates below 0.7 children per woman.

Will the world population ever start declining?

Yes, according to current UN projections. The global population is expected to peak sometime between the mid-2060s and 2100, most likely in the 2080s, before beginning a gradual decline.

Why do population figures vary between different websites?

Differences in baseline data sources, update timing, and which UN fertility variant (low, medium, or high) is used can all produce slightly different figures, even among reputable sources.

How accurate are population projections made years in advance?

Quite accurate at the global level, generally within a percentage point or two, because most people alive in any near-future year are already alive today. Country-level projections, especially for migration-dependent nations, carry somewhat more uncertainty.

This article reflects United Nations World Population Prospects (2024 Revision) data, extrapolated to 2028 from confirmed trends, and will be reviewed periodically to incorporate newer projections as they are released.