New Zealand’s population reached 5,361,300 in the year ended March 2026, growing by just 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from the more than 2.5% annual growth recorded just two years earlier. Beneath that deceleration sits a demographic shift that Stats NZ has now quantified precisely: in the most recent quarter, net migration accounted for 72% of total population growth, with natural increase, the surplus of births over deaths, contributing only 28%, and the country’s total fertility rate has fallen to 1.53 births per woman, well below the 2.1 needed for a population to replace itself through births alone.
New Zealand is not simply getting older. It is getting older while depending more heavily than ever on migration to keep growing at all, a combination Stats NZ’s own long-range projections describe in stark numeric terms: the population of people aged 65 and over is currently increasing by more than 500 people a week, and is projected to cross 1 million by 2029, just three years from now.
New Zealand’s Demographic Snapshot
| Metric | Figure | Year |
|---|---|---|
| Total population | 5,361,300 | March 2026 |
| Annual growth rate | 0.8% | year to March 2026 |
| Median age | 38.0 to 38.1 years | 2026 |
| Total fertility rate | 1.53 to 1.59 children per woman | 2025-26 |
| Life expectancy at birth | 80.4 to 80.8 years (male), 84.0 years (female) | 2025 |
| Population aged 65 and over | approximately 900,000 (17.6% of population) | 2025 |
| Net migration share of population growth | 56% (year), 72% (latest quarter) | year/quarter to March 2026 |
| Births (2025) | 57,705 | 2025 |
| Deaths (2025) | 37,491 to 37,821 | 2025 |
| Urban population share | approximately 83.7% to 87% | 2025-26 |
Sources: Stats NZ, Population estimates and projections; UN World Population Prospects 2024 Revision.
Stats NZ’s own reporting on the March 2026 figures is unambiguous about the direction of travel: there were 1,512 fewer live births in the year to March 2026 compared with the year to March 2025, deaths rose from 37,647 to 37,821, and the fertility rate fell further, from 1.58 to 1.53 births per woman, all within a single year of data.
New Zealand’s Population Is Aging
New Zealand’s age structure has shifted substantially over recent decades. The average age of the population rose from 30.6 years in 1960 to roughly 40.0 years by 2025 according to demographic tracking services, while Stats NZ’s own median age figure of 38.0 to 38.1 years reflects a nine-plus year increase over the past few decades according to PopulationPyramids.org’s analysis of the underlying age distribution data.
The clearest marker of this aging trend is the elderly population itself: New Zealand had approximately 900,000 people aged 65 and over as of 2025, a figure Stats NZ says is growing by more than 500 people every week.
Stats NZ’s own median population projection puts this milestone in stark relief, forecasting that the 65-plus population will cross 1 million by 2029, reach 1.5 million in the early 2050s, and approach 2 million around 2070, a more than doubling of New Zealand’s elderly population within the working lifetime of people currently in their twenties and thirties.
Why Is New Zealand Aging?
Three forces are driving this shift simultaneously, and it is important to be precise about how each contributes.
First, fertility has fallen substantially and continues to decline: from 1.58 births per woman in the year to March 2025 to 1.53 a year later, according to Stats NZ’s most recent release, with Our World in Data’s separate calendar-year series putting the 2023 figure at 1.67, illustrating the general downward trend across slightly different measurement methods.
Second, life expectancy continues to rise: Stats NZ’s median projection assumes life expectancy at birth increasing from 80.8 years for males and 84.0 years for females in 2025 to 88.1 and 90.5 years respectively by 2078. Third, the large baby boomer cohort born in the decades following World War II is now moving through its own retirement years, mechanically swelling the 65-plus population regardless of what is happening with current birth rates.
None of these three forces operates in isolation, and Stats NZ’s demographic modeling treats them as interacting projections rather than independent causes, but together they explain why New Zealand’s population is aging even in years, like the most recent one, when net migration remains positive and the country’s overall population continues to grow.
Fertility and Family Size
New Zealand’s total fertility rate of 1.53 to 1.59 births per woman, depending on the exact reference period, sits meaningfully below the 2.1 replacement level, and the trend has been consistently downward for years: Stats NZ’s own long-range projection assumes fertility easing further, from 1.59 births per woman in 2025 to 1.55 by 2051, a gradual decline the agency’s median scenario treats as more likely to continue than to reverse.
The demographic data also shows a shift toward later childbearing, with the median age of mothers giving birth climbing to 31.3 years nationally according to recent Stats NZ-sourced analysis, a pattern strongly associated with lower completed fertility internationally.
Regional variation within New Zealand is significant: Gisborne and Northland recorded fertility rates above 2.1 births per woman in recent data, above replacement level, while the national average sits well below it, illustrating that New Zealand’s fertility decline is not uniform across all regions and communities.
Migration as a Counterweight to Population Aging
Migration has become the dominant lever New Zealand relies on to sustain population growth as fertility declines. In the year to March 2026, net migration contributed 56% of New Zealand’s total population growth, or 24,300 people, compared with 44%, or 19,200 people, from natural increase.
In the most recent quarter alone, that split tilted further toward migration, with net migration responsible for 72% of quarterly growth and natural increase just 28%, reflecting both the continuing fertility decline and a modest uptick in quarterly migrant arrivals.
Stats NZ’s longer-range population projections make migration’s role even more explicit: international migration has been the main contributor to New Zealand’s population growth this century, and the agency’s median 50-year projection assumes a net migration gain of 42,000 people a year on average, alongside continued gradual fertility decline, to produce a population that crosses 6 million before 2040, reaches roughly 7 million by 2060, and approaches nearly 8 million by the late 2070s.
How Migration Changes New Zealand’s Age Structure
Migrants arriving in New Zealand tend to be concentrated in working-age and early-family-formation years rather than distributed evenly across the age spectrum, meaning net migration adds disproportionately to New Zealand’s working-age population in the years immediately following arrival.
This is precisely why Stats NZ’s own commentary frames migration as the main contributor to population growth this century rather than treating it as a demographic afterthought: without sustained migration at levels close to the 42,000 a year assumed in the median projection, New Zealand’s population growth would depend almost entirely on a natural increase figure that is itself shrinking as fertility declines and the population ages.
It is important, however, not to overstate migration’s power to reverse aging entirely. Migrants themselves age over time and eventually join the same 65-plus cohort driving today’s demographic shift, meaning migration can moderate the pace of population aging and sustain overall population growth, but it does not permanently eliminate the underlying dynamic created by below-replacement fertility and rising life expectancy.
Stats NZ’s own median projection illustrates this directly: even with a sustained assumed net migration gain of 42,000 people a year for the next 50 years, the agency still projects New Zealand’s median age climbing into the late 40s by the 2060s, up from 38 years today.
Geographic Differences in New Zealand’s Demographics
New Zealand’s population remains heavily urbanized, with estimates placing the urban population share between roughly 83.7% and 87% as of the mid-2020s, concentrated substantially in Auckland, New Zealand’s largest city, along with Wellington, Christchurch, and a handful of other regional centers.
Regional fertility variation adds a further geographic layer to New Zealand’s demographic picture: Gisborne and Northland’s above-replacement fertility rates contrast with lower rates recorded in more urbanized regions, a pattern broadly consistent with international evidence linking urbanization, education, and delayed childbearing to lower fertility.
Aging and the Labor Market
New Zealand’s shrinking ratio of working-age people to retirees carries direct implications for labor supply, workforce participation policy, and the sustainability of the country’s pension and aged-care systems. IBISWorld’s business environment analysis notes that the population aged 18 and older is projected to grow by just 1.2% during 2025-26, a modest pace reflecting both the fertility slowdown feeding through into new adult entrants and constrained net migration amid ongoing housing supply and inflationary concerns that have limited migrant intake relative to earlier post-pandemic years.
As the 65-plus population climbs toward Stats NZ’s projected 1 million by 2029 and 1.5 million by the early 2050s, a shrinking share of the population will remain in conventional working ages relative to the growing retiree population, a dynamic that will likely require continued policy attention to workforce participation rates among older workers, retirement age settings, and immigration policy calibrated toward working-age migrants.
Aging and Public Services
New Zealand’s rapidly growing elderly population will place sustained and rising demand on healthcare, aged care, superannuation, and related public services over the coming decades. The scale of this demand is captured directly in Stats NZ’s own framing of the issue: with the 65-plus population increasing by more than 500 people a week, and set to add roughly 100,000 more people to that age group approximately every two years on the path to 1 million by 2029, service and infrastructure planning has a defined and rapidly approaching horizon rather than a distant, uncertain one.
What Happens if Fertility Remains Low?
Should New Zealand’s fertility rate continue easing along the path assumed in Stats NZ’s median projection, from 1.59 births per woman in 2025 toward 1.55 by 2051, natural increase will continue contributing a progressively smaller share of total population growth, reinforcing the country’s reliance on sustained net migration simply to maintain positive population growth at all.
It is worth noting explicitly that a population can continue growing overall even as it ages, precisely the pattern New Zealand’s own projections describe: population growing from 5.3 million toward nearly 8 million by the late 2070s, while the median age simultaneously climbs from 38 years today into the late 40s by the 2060s.
New Zealand’s Population Outlook
Stats NZ’s own median population projection, released in 2026, is the most authoritative long-range scenario available: New Zealand’s population is projected to reach 6 million before 2040, approximately 7 million by 2060, and nearly 8 million by the late 2070s, built on assumptions of a sustained average net migration gain of 42,000 people a year, fertility easing gradually from 1.59 to 1.55 births per woman by 2051, and life expectancy at birth rising to 88.1 years for males and 90.5 years for females by 2078.
These figures represent Stats NZ’s median scenario rather than a certainty, and the agency’s own commentary is explicit that net migration has fluctuated widely from year to year historically, meaning actual outcomes could diverge meaningfully from the median path in either direction depending on future migration policy settings and global economic conditions.
What is more robust across the range of plausible scenarios is the underlying direction of New Zealand’s age structure: a population that continues aging steadily for decades to come, regardless of the exact pace, with migration serving as an important moderating influence rather than a solution that eliminates the trend entirely.
Key Findings
- New Zealand’s population reached 5,361,300 in the year to March 2026, growing by just 0.8%, down sharply from more than 2.5% annual growth just two years earlier.
- Net migration contributed 56% of total population growth over the past year and 72% in the most recent quarter alone, while natural increase’s share continues shrinking.
- Total fertility fell from 1.58 to 1.53 births per woman within a single year, continuing a long-term decline well below the 2.1 replacement level.
- New Zealand’s 65-plus population, currently about 900,000, is growing by more than 500 people a week and is projected to cross 1 million by 2029.
- Stats NZ’s median 50-year projection assumes an average net migration gain of 42,000 people a year, driving population growth to roughly 6 million before 2040 and nearly 8 million by the late 2070s.
- Even with sustained migration at these levels, New Zealand’s median age is still projected to climb from 38 years today into the late 40s by the 2060s.
- Regional fertility variation is significant, with Gisborne and Northland recording rates above the 2.1 replacement level even as the national average sits well below it.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. Is New Zealand’s population aging?
Yes. New Zealand’s median age has risen to approximately 38 years, and the population aged 65 and over, currently around 900,000, is growing by more than 500 people a week and is projected to cross 1 million by 2029.
2. What is New Zealand’s median age?
New Zealand’s median age was approximately 38.0 to 38.1 years as of 2026, according to Stats NZ and Worldometer data, up substantially from 30.6 years in 1960.
3. Why is New Zealand’s population aging?
Three factors are driving the shift together: total fertility has fallen to 1.53 births per woman, well below the 2.1 replacement level; life expectancy continues rising, toward a projected 88.1 years for males and 90.5 years for females by 2078; and the large postwar baby boomer cohort is now moving through retirement age.
4. How does migration affect New Zealand’s population?
Net migration has become the dominant driver of population growth, contributing 56% of total growth in the year to March 2026 and 72% in the most recent quarter, and Stats NZ’s long-range projections assume an average annual net migration gain of 42,000 people over the next 50 years.
5. Can immigration solve population aging?
Migration can moderate the pace of aging and sustain overall population growth, since migrants typically arrive at working ages, but it does not eliminate aging entirely: Stats NZ’s own median projection, which assumes substantial ongoing migration, still forecasts the median age climbing into the late 40s by the 2060s.
6. Will New Zealand’s population continue to grow?
Yes, under Stats NZ’s median projection, which forecasts the population reaching 6 million before 2040, approximately 7 million by 2060, and nearly 8 million by the late 2070s, driven predominantly by sustained net migration rather than natural increase.
7. What is New Zealand’s fertility rate?
New Zealand’s total fertility rate was 1.53 births per woman in the year to March 2026, down from 1.58 the year before, and well below the 2.1 replacement level needed to sustain the population through births alone.
8. How many people in New Zealand are 65 or older?
Approximately 900,000 people in New Zealand were aged 65 or older as of 2025, roughly 17.6% of the population, a figure Stats NZ projects will cross 1 million by 2029, reach 1.5 million in the early 2050s, and approach 2 million around 2070.
9. Are birth rates the same across all regions of New Zealand?
No. Gisborne and Northland recorded total fertility rates above the 2.1 replacement level in recent data, while the national average of 1.53 to 1.59 sits well below it, reflecting significant regional variation in fertility across the country.
10. Is New Zealand’s population declining?
No, New Zealand’s population is still growing, by 0.8% in the year to March 2026, but that growth has slowed sharply from over 2.5% just two years earlier and is now driven predominantly by net migration rather than an excess of births over deaths.
Sources
- Stats NZ, Population estimates and projections, 2026 release
- Stats NZ, New Zealand’s population likely to reach 6 million before 2040
- United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2024 Revision
- Our World in Data, Population and Demography Country Profile, New Zealand
- Wikipedia, Demographics of New Zealand
- Worldometer, New Zealand Population and Demographics 2026
- IBISWorld, Business Environment Profiles, New Zealand Population Aged 18 and Older
