Italy recorded 355,000 births in 2025, its lowest annual total on record, against 652,000 deaths, a gap of nearly 300,000 that immigration only partly offset. The fertility rate fell to 1.14 children per woman, down from 1.18 in 2024, according to ISTAT’s Demographic Indicators report for 2025, published March 31, 2026. Behind that single number sits a generational structure now so imbalanced that Italy has more centenarians alive today, roughly 22,000, than it once had newborns in some individual regions each year.
Italy’s Young Population Is Shrinking
As of January 1, 2026, Italy’s resident population stood at 58,943,000, according to ISTAT’s provisional data, essentially flat compared with the previous year but only because immigration of 440,000 people offset a natural population loss of 296,000, the difference between the 355,000 births and 652,000 deaths recorded in 2025. Italian citizens alone numbered 53,383,000, a decline of 189,000 over the year, while the foreign resident population rose by 188,000 to 5,560,000.
That balance, a shrinking Italian-born population offset almost one-for-one by a growing foreign resident population, is the mechanism keeping Italy’s total population roughly stable even as its youngest age cohorts continue to contract.
Italy’s Fertility Rate and Falling Births
The 355,000 births recorded in 2025 represent a birth rate of just 6.0 per 1,000 inhabitants, down from 6.3 in 2024 and from 9.5 per 1,000 as recently as 2005, a halving of the birth rate in twenty years. Births fell by 15,000, or 3.9 percent, compared with 2024 alone. One in eight births, roughly 48,000, was to parents of foreign nationality, itself down 5.6 percent from the prior year, indicating that even Italy’s higher-fertility immigrant population is not immune to the broader downward trend.
Italy’s Births and Fertility, Selected Years
| Year | Births | Fertility Rate | Birth Rate (per 1,000) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | — | — | 9.5 |
| 2021 | 400,249 | 1.25 | — |
| 2022 | 392,600 | 1.24 | — |
| 2024 | 370,000 (approx.) | 1.18 | 6.3 |
| 2025 | 355,000 | 1.14 | 6.0 |
The decline recorded in 2025 continues a run stretching back to 2008, the year Italy’s births last rose. ISTAT’s regional breakdown shows the decline has been strikingly uniform: fertility fell in the Centre from 1.11 in 2024 to 1.07 in 2025, in the North from 1.19 to 1.15, and in the South from 1.20 to 1.16, meaning the geographic gaps that once distinguished Italy’s fertility map have not widened even as the overall level continues falling. Trentino-Alto Adige recorded the country’s highest regional fertility rate at 1.40, followed by Sicily at 1.23.
Why Italy Has So Few Children
ISTAT’s own analysis points to the shrinking pool of women of childbearing age as a central mechanical factor: fewer women aged 15 to 49 means fewer births even if fertility per woman held constant, and Italy’s number of women in that age range has been declining for years as the smaller cohorts born after the 1970s fertility decline move through their reproductive years.
Layered on top of that structural effect is delayed parenthood: the average age of mothers at childbirth reached 32.7 years in 2025, up from earlier decades, a trend experts link to smaller completed family size, since starting later leaves less time for a second or third child.
No single explanation accounts for the whole pattern. Economic uncertainty, housing costs, labor market conditions for young adults, and regional differences in family support all plausibly contribute, but ISTAT’s data itself does not attribute the decline to one dominant cause, and the near-uniform drop across all Italian regions, rich and poor, north and south, suggests the drivers are broad and structural rather than narrowly regional.
Italy’s Rapidly Growing Older Population
Italy remains among the countries with the highest life expectancy in Europe: 81.7 years for men and 85.7 years for women in 2025, according to ISTAT. Combined with decades of low fertility, that longevity has pushed Italy’s 65-and-over share of the population to roughly one in four residents, among the highest elderly shares of any large country in the world.
The number of Italian centenarians has tripled over the past twenty years to approximately 22,000, a figure that illustrates just how far the balance between generations has shifted: Italy now adds more people to its centenarian population each year than some of its smaller regions add newborns.
Migration and the Generational Balance
Immigration remains the primary force preventing Italy’s total population from declining outright. Immigration from abroad reached 440,000 in 2025 against emigration of 144,000, a net migration balance of positive 296,000, almost exactly offsetting the natural population loss of the same magnitude. Xinhua’s reporting on the ISTAT release noted this offsetting relationship directly: without immigration, Italy’s population would have fallen sharply in 2025 rather than remaining essentially flat.
This dynamic changes Italy’s underlying demographic composition even as it stabilizes the headline population number. Foreign residents, at 5.56 million as of January 2026, represent a growing share of Italy’s population and, on average, a younger and higher-fertility group than the native Italian population, though their fertility too has been declining, as shown by the 5.6 percent drop in births to foreign parents in 2025.
Regional Differences in Italy’s Age Structure
Italy’s north-south demographic divide has historically been significant, with southern regions traditionally younger and more fertile than the industrialized north. ISTAT’s 2025 data shows this gap persisting in relative terms, the South’s fertility rate of 1.16 still exceeds the Centre’s 1.07, but the uniform decline across all regions means the gap has not widened, and no Italian region recorded fertility anywhere near the 2.1 replacement level.
Regions such as Trentino-Alto Adige, with stronger family support infrastructure and higher relative prosperity, continue to outperform the national average, but even Italy’s highest-fertility region, at 1.40, remains well below replacement.
What a Smaller Youth Population Means
A shrinking cohort of children and young adults has consequences that extend well beyond the annual births figure. Fewer school-age children mean pressure on school enrollment and eventual closures in some areas; a shrinking pool of young workers entering the labor force strains pension financing, since Italy’s pay-as-you-go pension system depends on a sufficient ratio of workers to retirees; and reduced household formation among young adults affects housing demand and entrepreneurship.
ISTAT’s data on household composition shows couples with children now make up only 28.4 percent of Italian households, against 20.2 percent for couples without children, a reversal of the family structure that characterized Italy for most of the twentieth century.
Italy’s Future Population Structure
ISTAT’s baseline population projections, referenced in earlier agency reporting, put Italy’s population on a path to decline to approximately 54.2 million by 2050 and 47.7 million by 2070 under central assumptions, a loss of close to a fifth of the current population over roughly forty-five years. These figures are scenario-based projections built on assumed future fertility, mortality, and migration trends, not guaranteed outcomes, and Italy’s continued reliance on immigration to offset natural decline means the actual trajectory will depend heavily on migration policy and flows that are inherently harder to project with precision than mortality trends.
Conclusion
Italy’s population data for 2025 describes a country where the generations no longer balance. Fewer than 355,000 babies were born against 652,000 deaths, a gap immigration covered almost exactly but did not reverse, while the number of Italians reaching their hundredth birthday keeps climbing.
The regional uniformity of the fertility decline, present equally in the traditionally higher-fertility South and the older North, suggests Italy is not managing a regional problem but a national one, and the country’s own statistical agency projects the imbalance will continue widening for decades.
Key Findings
- Italy recorded 355,000 births in 2025, the lowest annual total on record, against 652,000 deaths, a natural population loss of 296,000 offset almost exactly by net migration of 296,000.
- Fertility fell to 1.14 children per woman in 2025, down from 1.18 in 2024 and from over 1.24 as recently as 2022.
- The birth rate has roughly halved over twenty years, from 9.5 per 1,000 inhabitants in 2005 to 6.0 per 1,000 in 2025.
- Italy’s Italian-citizen population fell by 189,000 in 2025 while its foreign resident population rose by 188,000, nearly offsetting each other and masking the underlying native-born decline.
- ISTAT baseline projections put Italy’s population at approximately 54.2 million by 2050 and 47.7 million by 2070, a decline of close to a fifth from current levels.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. How many young people live in Italy?
ISTAT’s most recent detailed age breakdown, for 2024, put the under-15 share of Italy’s population at approximately 12.9 percent, among the lowest in Europe, a share that has continued shrinking as the 2025 birth data shows.
2. Why is Italy’s birth rate so low?
ISTAT points to a shrinking pool of women of childbearing age, later average age at first birth (32.7 years in 2025), and broader economic and social factors, without attributing the decline to any single dominant cause; the drop has been remarkably uniform across all Italian regions.
3. Is Italy’s population shrinking?
Italy’s total population held roughly stable at 58.94 million as of January 2026, but only because net migration of 296,000 people offset a natural population loss of the same size; the Italian-citizen population alone fell by 189,000 in 2025.
4. What is Italy’s fertility rate in 2025?
Italy’s fertility rate was 1.14 children per woman in 2025, down from 1.18 in 2024, according to ISTAT’s Demographic Indicators report.
5. Which Italian region has the highest fertility rate?
Trentino-Alto Adige recorded Italy’s highest regional fertility rate in 2025, at 1.40 children per woman, followed by Sicily at 1.23, though both remain well below the 2.1 replacement level.
6. How many centenarians live in Italy?
Italy’s centenarian population has roughly tripled over the past twenty years to approximately 22,000, reflecting the country’s high life expectancy of 81.7 years for men and 85.7 years for women in 2025.
7. How does immigration affect Italy’s population structure?
Immigration, at 440,000 arrivals against 144,000 departures in 2025, is the primary factor preventing Italy’s total population from declining outright, though it does not reverse the underlying aging of the native Italian population.
8. What share of Italy’s population is over 65?
Italy’s 65-and-over population represents roughly one in four residents as of recent ISTAT data, among the highest elderly shares of any large country globally.
9. Is Italy’s youth decline the same across the whole country?
The decline has been unusually uniform: fertility fell in every major region in 2025, from the Centre’s 1.07 to the South’s 1.16, and the historical gap between regions has not widened even as the overall level continues falling.
10. What is Italy’s projected population in 2050?
ISTAT baseline scenarios project Italy’s population declining to approximately 54.2 million by 2050 and 47.7 million by 2070, though these figures depend on assumptions about future migration that carry significant uncertainty.
Sources
- Istituto Nazionale di Statistica (ISTAT), Demographic Indicators – Year 2025, press release, March 31, 2026
- ISTAT, Births and Fertility of the Resident Population, Year 2024 report
- Xinhua, “Italy’s birth rate hits record low, demographic pressures mount,” March 31, 2026
- Il Sole 24 ORE, “In 2025 births in Italy will fall by 3.9%,” March 31, 2026
- Wikipedia, “Demographics of Italy,” citing ISTAT data
- Fox News / Associated Press, ISTAT annual demographic report coverage, 2023 (historical baseline and projection figures)
