Sometime in the late 2070s, according to United Nations projections, the number of people aged 65 and older on earth will overtake the number of children under 18 for the first time in recorded history. It will not arrive as a single dramatic event. It will arrive the way most demographic shifts do, quietly, one birthday at a time, until the crossover is simply a fact rather than a forecast.
The 65-plus threshold is a somewhat arbitrary line, tied historically to retirement ages set in 19th-century Germany rather than any biological marker of old age. But it has become the standard international benchmark for measuring population aging, and it is the lens through which the UN, the World Health Organization, and most national governments track what may be the defining demographic trend of the next century.
Individual aging and population aging are related but distinct ideas worth separating clearly. A person ages one year at a time regardless of what is happening around them. A population ages when the balance between its age groups shifts, when falling births and rising survival combine to make older cohorts a larger share of the whole. The 65-plus population discussed here captures that second, structural process, not simply the fact that people everywhere are living longer lives.
How Many People Worldwide Are Over 65?
- Current population: approximately 830 million people worldwide are aged 65 or older, based on the most recent UN estimates.
- Share of global population: roughly 10 percent of everyone alive today.
- Historical comparison: in 2019, the global 65-plus population stood at 703 million; in 1950, it represented only around 5 percent of the world’s population.
- Future projections: the UN projects this group will reach approximately 1.7 billion by the late 2050s, more than double today’s figure.
How the 65 Plus Population Has Changed
| Year | Global 65+ Population | Share of World Population | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1950 | ~130 million | ~5% | Post-war era, high global fertility kept the share low |
| 2000 | ~420 million | ~6.9% | Aging accelerating in Europe and Japan |
| 2019 | 703 million | ~9.1% | UN baseline year for most recent 30-year aging projections |
| 2024 (present) | ~830 million | ~10.1% | Fastest-growing major age group globally |
| Late 2050s (projected) | ~1.7 billion | ~17-18% | Roughly double today’s figure |
| Late 2070s (projected) | ~2.2 billion | Surpasses under-18 population | First time in recorded history older people outnumber children |
Key finding: The 65-plus population has grown more than six times over since 1950, even as the world’s overall population growth rate has been falling for decades. Population aging and population growth are not the same trend, and right now they are moving in opposite directions.
Countries With the Largest 65 Plus Populations
Ranking by absolute numbers and by percentage share produces very different lists, because population size and age structure are independent variables.
- By absolute numbers: China and India lead by sheer scale, each home to well over 150 million people aged 65 or older, followed by the United States, which combines a large total population with an aging baby boom generation.
- By percentage share: Japan tops the global ranking, with roughly 28.2 percent of its population, close to 36 million people, aged 65 or older, a share unmatched by any other country of comparable size.
- Why rankings differ: China ranks among the largest 65-plus populations in raw numbers largely because its total population is so enormous, even though its percentage share remains lower than Japan’s or several European countries’. Smaller, older-skewing countries such as Japan, Italy, and Portugal rank much higher by percentage than by absolute headcount.
Why the World Is Aging
- Falling fertility: the global total fertility rate has dropped from roughly five children per woman in the 1960s to 2.25 today, narrowing each new generation relative to the ones before it.
- Longer life expectancy: global life expectancy at birth reached 73.3 years in 2024, up 8.4 years since 1995, and is projected to reach around 77.4 years by 2054, extending the years each generation spends in the 65-plus bracket.
- Falling mortality: declining death rates at every age mean a larger share of each birth cohort survives long enough to reach 65 in the first place.
- Improved healthcare: advances in chronic disease management, particularly for cardiovascular disease, have extended survival well past traditional retirement ages across most regions.
The Fastest Aging Countries
- Examples from Asia: by 2050, roughly 40 percent of the populations of Hong Kong, South Korea, and Japan are projected to be aged 65 or older, among the highest shares projected anywhere in the world.
- Examples from Europe: Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Greece all rank among the fastest-aging populations globally, driven by decades of below-replacement fertility.
- Emerging aging countries: China’s population is aging faster than almost any large country in history because its fertility decline happened so rapidly and so recently, compressing decades of demographic transition into a single generation.
Regional pace, 2019 to 2050 (UN): Northern Africa and Western Asia are projected to see the fastest percentage growth in their 65-plus population of any region, rising from 29 million to 96 million, an increase of 226 percent. Sub-Saharan Africa follows closely, projected to grow from 32 million to 101 million, an increase of 218 percent, even though both regions will remain comparatively young by global standards throughout this period.
Economic Effects
- Pensions: pay-as-you-go pension systems designed for a much younger population structure face mounting strain as the ratio of workers to retirees keeps falling in most aging economies, forcing difficult tradeoffs between higher contributions, reduced benefits, or later retirement ages.
- Healthcare: older populations require substantially more spending on chronic disease management, raising healthcare’s share of national budgets across aging countries and pulling public spending away from other priorities.
- Workforce: a shrinking working-age population relative to retirees is already constraining labor supply in Japan, Germany, and Italy, pushing employers toward automation, expanded immigration, or both.
- Savings: aging populations tend to draw down accumulated savings rather than build them, with implications for national capital markets and long-term investment.
- Productivity: some economists link aging workforces to slower productivity growth, though the effect varies by how well older workers remain economically engaged and by how quickly technology offsets a shrinking labor pool.
- Government budgets: the combined weight of pension and healthcare spending is already reshaping national budget priorities across most high-income economies, and the pressure is projected to intensify considerably over the coming decades.
Social Effects
- Elder care: demand for elder care, from home health aides to residential facilities, is rising faster than supply in several of the fastest-aging countries, creating waiting lists and rising costs for families seeking care.
- Family structures: smaller families combined with rising longevity mean fewer working-age relatives are available to support each older family member, a structural shift with no easy short-term fix.
- Housing: aging populations shift housing demand toward accessible, smaller homes suited to independent living at older ages, while leaving a surplus of housing stock originally built for larger, younger families.
- Longevity: rising life expectancy at 65 itself, not just the size of the 65-plus population, is reshaping retirement planning, since many people now spend 20 years or more in retirement, far longer than pension systems originally assumed.
- Intergenerational relationships: the “sandwich generation” phenomenon, middle-aged adults simultaneously supporting aging parents and their own children, is becoming more common across most aging societies, adding financial and emotional strain to households already stretched thin.
Future of the 65 Plus Population
The UN’s central projections describe a population that is not only larger but structurally different from today’s. By the late 2050s, the global 65-plus population is expected to reach roughly 1.7 billion. By the late 2070s, it is projected to surpass the number of children under 18 worldwide for the first time in human history, a genuine demographic first rather than a routine milestone.
- Projected growth: the 65-plus population is on track to grow far faster than total population for the rest of this century.
- Changing ratio of older people to workers: the number of working-age people supporting each person aged 65 or older is falling steadily across nearly every region, though the pace varies enormously.
- Policy responses: governments are experimenting with pension reform, extended retirement ages, immigration expansion, and automation investment, with mixed results in slowing the underlying trend.
- Longer working lives: several countries have already raised statutory retirement ages in direct response to a shrinking ratio of workers to retirees.
Conclusion
Population aging is not a distant forecast confined to Japan or a handful of European countries. It is a global trend now reaching every region on earth, just at very different speeds. The 65-plus population has grown from roughly 5 percent of humanity in 1950 to just over 10 percent today, and the UN projects it will keep climbing well past that share for the rest of this century.
Somewhere around the late 2070s, for the first time since humans began keeping any kind of demographic record, older people will outnumber children on this planet. That crossover, more than any single population milestone, marks the true turning point of 21st-century demography.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. How many people in the world are 65 or older?
Approximately 830 million, or roughly 10 percent of the global population, based on recent UN estimates.
2. When will the number of people 65 and older exceed the number of children?
The UN projects this crossover globally by the late 2070s, when the 65-plus population is expected to reach around 2.2 billion.
3. Which country has the highest percentage of people 65 and older?
Japan, where roughly 28.2 percent of the population, close to 36 million people, is aged 65 or older.
4. Which countries have the largest 65-plus populations in absolute numbers?
China and India lead by sheer scale, followed by the United States, primarily because of their large total populations.
5. How fast is the global 65-plus population growing compared with total population growth?
Much faster. It is projected to double by the late 2050s, while total world population growth continues slowing.
6. Why is Asia central to global population aging?
Because Hong Kong, South Korea, Japan, and China are all projected to reach some of the highest 65-plus population shares in the world by mid-century, with China’s transition happening especially fast due to its rapid, recent fertility decline.
7. What region is aging fastest in percentage terms?
Northern Africa and Western Asia, projected to see their 65-plus population grow by 226 percent between 2019 and 2050, even though the region remains comparatively young overall.
8. Can immigration reverse population aging?
Immigration can slow the pace of aging and support the workforce, but it cannot fully reverse the underlying trend, since immigrants also age over time.
9. How has global life expectancy affected population aging?
Global life expectancy at birth reached 73.3 years in 2024, up 8.4 years since 1995, directly extending the number of years people spend in the 65-plus age bracket.
10. What was the global 65-plus population in 1950 for comparison?
Approximately 130 million people, or around 5 percent of the world’s population at the time, compared with roughly 830 million and 10 percent today.
Sources
- United Nations, World Population Prospects 2024 Revision, Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs
- United Nations, “Our World Is Growing Older,” UN DESA Population Division
- United Nations, “International Day of Older Persons” homepage and background data
- Our World in Data, “The Global Number of People Aged 65 and Older Is Set to Double Within the Next Thirty Years”
- World Economic Forum, “Which Countries Have the Oldest Populations?”
- Madison Trust, “The Top 50 Countries With the Largest Percentage of Population Aged 65 and Up”
