Quick Answer
Niger, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and several other Sub Saharan African nations currently have the world’s fastest growing populations, with annual growth rates above 3 percent. Meanwhile, Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, and other Eastern European nations are shrinking fastest, losing population at rates exceeding 1 percent annually due to low fertility and sustained emigration.
Nations across Sub Saharan Africa, including Niger, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Nigeria, currently have the world’s fastest growing populations, while countries such as Bulgaria, Latvia, and Lithuania are shrinking the fastest. This divergence highlights the growing gap between high fertility developing nations and low fertility, often aging, developed nations.
Key Takeaways
- Niger has one of the world’s highest population growth rates, exceeding 3.5 percent annually.
- Eastern European nations, including Bulgaria and Latvia, are shrinking fastest globally.
- Fast growing countries typically have very high fertility rates above 4.5 children per woman.
- Fast shrinking countries combine low fertility with significant emigration.
- Sub Saharan Africa accounts for most of the world’s fastest growing populations.
- Eastern Europe accounts for most of the world’s fastest shrinking populations.
- Growth and decline extremes are expected to persist or widen through 2050.
Understanding Growth and Decline Extremes
Population growth rate measures the annual percentage change in a country’s population from births, deaths, and migration combined. A common misconception is that fast growth always reflects high birth rates alone. In reality, fastest shrinking countries often combine low fertility with significant emigration, compounding population loss beyond natural decline alone.
Global Overview
The gap between fastest growing and fastest shrinking countries has widened significantly in recent decades. High fertility nations, concentrated in Sub Saharan Africa, continue rapid growth, while several Eastern European and East Asian nations face accelerating decline driven by low fertility and outward migration.
Latest Statistics
| Fastest Growing Countries | Annual Growth Rate (2024) |
|---|---|
| Niger | 3.7 percent |
| Democratic Republic of Congo | 3.2 percent |
| Chad | 3.0 percent |
| Angola | 3.0 percent |
| Somalia | 2.9 percent |
| Fastest Shrinking Countries | Annual Growth Rate (2024) |
|---|---|
| Bulgaria | Negative 1.5 percent |
| Latvia | Negative 1.1 percent |
| Lithuania | Negative 1.0 percent |
| Ukraine | Negative 1.0 percent (war affected) |
| Moldova | Negative 0.9 percent |
Source: UN World Population Prospects 2024 Revision.
Main Causes of Fast Growth
Fast growing countries typically have high fertility rates, often above 4.5 children per woman, combined with improving child survival rates and limited access to family planning and education, particularly for women in rural areas.
Main Causes of Fast Decline
Fast shrinking countries combine very low fertility, often below 1.5 children per woman, with significant emigration, particularly among working age adults seeking better economic opportunities in wealthier nations.
Positive Effects
Fast growing countries benefit from expanding, youthful workforces with significant long-term economic potential if paired with adequate education and job creation. Fast shrinking countries may see reduced competition for housing and resources.
Negative Effects
Fast growing countries often struggle to provide sufficient infrastructure, healthcare, and education for rapidly expanding populations. Fast shrinking countries face severe workforce shortages, economic stagnation, and strained pension systems.
Economic Impact
Rapid population growth can strain public services in the short term but offers long term labor force potential. Rapid population decline shrinks tax bases, reduces consumer markets, and increases per capita costs of maintaining infrastructure built for larger populations.
Social Impact
Fast growing countries face pressure on education systems and job markets for large youth populations. Fast shrinking countries often see rural depopulation, school closures, and increased strain on remaining working age residents supporting aging communities.
Environmental Impact
Fast growing countries face rising resource demand, particularly for food, water, and housing. Fast shrinking countries may see reduced local environmental pressure, though this is often offset by continued high consumption in wealthier shrinking nations.
Regional Comparison
| Region | Growth Extreme | Example Country |
|---|---|---|
| Sub Saharan Africa | Fastest growing | Niger |
| Eastern Europe | Fastest shrinking | Bulgaria |
| East Asia | Rapidly shrinking | South Korea |
| Middle East | Moderate growth | Varies by country |
| Western Europe | Slow growth or decline | Germany |
| Latin America | Slowing growth | Brazil |
Country Comparison
Niger stands out globally for sustained high fertility near 6.7 children per woman, driving population growth rates among the highest in the world. Bulgaria faces the opposite extreme, combining very low fertility with substantial emigration since joining the European Union. South Korea, while not among the fastest shrinking today by total numbers, faces the most severe long term demographic decline due to extremely low fertility. Nigeria, while not the single fastest growing, contributes the largest total population increase due to its already large population base.
Future Outlook
By 2030, Sub Saharan African nations are expected to continue dominating global growth rankings, while several Eastern European countries face continued sharp decline. By 2050, Nigeria is projected to become the third most populous country globally due to sustained growth. By 2100, current fastest growing nations are expected to see slowing growth as development progresses, while fastest shrinking nations may stabilize at significantly smaller populations unless fertility or migration trends shift.
Common Myths
| Myth | Fact |
|---|---|
| Only birth rate determines fastest shrinking countries | Emigration plays an equally significant role |
| Africa’s fastest growing countries will grow indefinitely | Growth rates are expected to slow as development progresses |
| Nigeria is currently the fastest growing country | Niger and several other nations have higher growth rates |
| Fastest shrinking countries are only in East Asia | Eastern Europe currently leads in population shrinkage rate |
| Fast growth always leads to poverty | Growth can support long term development if managed well |
| Population decline always means economic decline | Some shrinking countries maintain growth through productivity gains |
| War is the only cause of population decline in Eastern Europe | Low fertility and emigration are long term underlying causes |
| Fast growing countries have no fertility decline underway | Fertility is falling even in fast growing countries, just from a higher base |
| Shrinking countries cannot reverse population decline | Some countries have modestly slowed decline through policy |
| Population growth rate rankings are static | Rankings shift over time as fertility and migration patterns change |
Conclusion
The gap between the world’s fastest growing and fastest shrinking countries continues to widen, with Sub Saharan African nations like Niger leading growth and Eastern European nations like Bulgaria leading decline. These extremes reflect big differences in fertility, healthcare, economic opportunity, and migration patterns. The practical takeaway is that both fast growth and fast decline present distinct but equally serious policy challenges that require tailored, region specific solutions.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which country has the fastest growing population?
Niger currently has one of the world’s fastest growing populations, with an annual growth rate exceeding 3.5 percent.
Which country has the fastest shrinking population?
Bulgaria currently has one of the world’s fastest shrinking populations, losing population at a rate of approximately 1.5 percent annually.
Why is Niger’s population growing so fast?
Niger has one of the world’s highest fertility rates, near 6.7 children per woman, combined with improving child survival rates.
Why is Bulgaria’s population shrinking so quickly?
Bulgaria combines very low fertility with significant emigration, particularly among working-age adults seeking opportunities elsewhere in the European Union.
Are fastest growing countries mostly in Africa?
Yes, Sub Saharan Africa accounts for most of the world’s fastest growing populations currently.
Are fastest shrinking countries mostly in Europe?
Yes, several Eastern European countries currently rank among the fastest shrinking populations globally.
Will Nigeria become the fastest growing country?
Nigeria is not currently the single fastest growing by rate, but contributes the largest total population increase due to its large existing population.
Does emigration affect population growth rankings?
Yes, emigration significantly affects both fastest growing and fastest shrinking country rankings, particularly in Eastern Europe.
Can fastest shrinking countries reverse their decline?
Some countries have modestly slowed decline through family policy and immigration, though full reversal has proven difficult.
Will growth and decline extremes continue through 2050?
Yes, most projections suggest the gap between fastest growing and fastest shrinking countries will persist or widen through 2050.
Sources: United Nations World Population Prospects 2024, World Bank, Eurostat, OECD, national statistical offices.
