Jamaica’s population grew by 600 people in 2025. The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) estimated 2,764,200 residents at the end of the year, against 2,763,600 a year earlier, a growth rate of 0.0%. Behind that near-zero figure sit two larger movements that almost cancel. Births (28,900) exceeded deaths (21,300) by 7,600, and net migration and other adjustments removed roughly 7,000 people, a figure derived from the PIOJ’s own totals. In the same year, Jamaica received US$3.49 billion in remittances, up 3.8%, which is about US$1,260 for every resident.
That pairing is the core of Jamaica’s demographic economy. A small and slowly shrinking resident population sends people abroad every year and receives a large and steady return flow of money from them. This article measures both sides: the population that stays, the diaspora that leaves, and the remittances that connect them. It also resolves a fertility discrepancy that has circulated between sources, and it flags where Jamaica’s own figures and the UN’s differ by more than 70,000 people.
Jamaica Population at a Glance
| Metric | Figure | Year / Source |
|---|---|---|
| Population (PIOJ estimate) | 2,764,200 | End 2025, PIOJ |
| Population (2022 census) | 2,774,538 | September 2022 census |
| Population (UN estimate) | 2,837,077 (2025); 2,833,403 (2026) | UN WPP 2024 |
| Growth, 2025 | +600 (0.0%) | PIOJ |
| Births / deaths | 28,900 / 21,300 | 2025, PIOJ |
| Natural increase | +7,600 | 2025, PIOJ |
| Net migration and other | ~–7,000 (derived); –11,053 (UN) | 2025 |
| Total fertility rate | 1.33 to 1.35 | 2024 to 2026, UN WPP 2024 |
| Median age | 33.3 years | 2026, UN-based |
| Urban share | 60.2% | 2025, UN-based |
| Density | ~262 per km² (land area 10,830 km²) | 2025, UN-based |
| Remittances | US$3.49 billion (+3.8%) | 2025, Bank of Jamaica |
The census and the UN diverge. The UN-based estimate for 2025 is 72,877 people (2.6%) above the PIOJ’s, and the UN’s series shows a peak of about 2.84 million in 2023. National figures have also been revised: an earlier edition of the PIOJ’s Economic and Social Survey Jamaica, reported in August 2025, put the 2024 population at 2,700,400, while the 2025 edition lists 2,763,600 for the same year, a change that appears to reflect a revision to the series. Readers comparing Jamaican sources should check which edition is being cited.
Jamaica’s Population Growth Has Slowed
Jamaica’s census record shows how little the resident population has grown. The 2011 census counted 2,697,983, and the 2022 census counted 2,774,538, an increase of 76,555 people, or 2.8%, over eleven years. That works out to about 0.24% a year. Earlier decades were faster: the 2001 census count was 2,607,632.
| Year | Population | Change | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | 2,607,632 | n/a | Census |
| 2011 | 2,697,983 | +3.5% | Census |
| 2022 | 2,774,538 | +2.8% | Census |
| 2025 | 2,764,200 | –0.4% vs 2022 census | PIOJ estimate |
| 2050 | 2,454,940 | –13.4% vs 2026 | UN projection |
| 2100 | 1,066,774 | –62.4% vs 2026 | UN projection |
What fertility is actually doing
Sources disagree on Jamaica’s total fertility rate, and the gap has been large. The UN’s 2024 revision puts it at 1.33 for 2026 (1.35 in 2024), down from about 3.9 in 1950. A national commentary reported in 2025 cited 1.3. A UNFPA report launch in Jamaica cited 1.9. The 1.3 figure is the better supported: the PIOJ’s 28,900 births in 2025 imply a crude birth rate of about 10.5 per 1,000 residents, which is consistent with fertility far below replacement, and the PIOJ itself describes below-replacement fertility as one of the forces shaping the population structure. The 1.9 figure is not consistent with that birth count, and I could not find the basis for it.
Fertility below replacement does not by itself produce decline in the short run, since deaths are also low. In 2025 births still exceeded deaths by 7,600. But the margin is thin, and it is the migration balance that pushes the total to zero growth.
Why Jamaicans Migrate
None of the sources used for this article quantifies Jamaicans’ own stated reasons for leaving, so the explanations below describe the structure of the flow rather than survey results. The structure is clear. Emigration for work has been a feature of Jamaican life since the 1960s, and large communities in Canada, the United Kingdom and the United States lower the cost of moving through family networks. UN-based estimates put net migration at negative 11,053 in 2025 and negative 10,506 in 2024, while an older national estimate for 2022 was negative 7.7 per 1,000 people, about 21,000 a year. The PIOJ-derived figure for 2025 is smaller, at about 7,000.
Whichever figure is used, the scale is roughly 0.25% to 0.4% of the resident population every year. Over a decade that adds up to between about 70,000 and 110,000 people, or 2.5% to 4% of today’s population, in a country whose natural increase is only 7,600 a year. The foreign-born share of Jamaica’s own population is just 0.8%, so there is almost no inward migration to offset it.
Where the Jamaican Diaspora Lives
Diaspora counts need careful definitions, because born abroad, ancestry and citizenship give different numbers.
| Destination | Figure | Measure | Year / Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | ~888,000 | Jamaican-born immigrants | 2024, Migration Policy Institute |
| United States, unauthorized | ~57,500 (derived: 10% of 575,000 Caribbean total) | Jamaican unauthorized immigrants | Mid-2023, MPI |
| United Kingdom | 160,776 | Jamaica-born residents | 2011 census (latest retrieved) |
| Canada | 249,070 | Jamaican ethnic or cultural origin (123,595 single, 125,480 multiple) | 2021 census |
The U.S. figure is a count of people born in Jamaica, the UK figure is also by place of birth but is more than a decade old, and the Canadian figure counts ancestry, so the three cannot be added into a single diaspora total. Taken at face value, the Jamaica-born populations of the United States and the United Kingdom together come to about 1.05 million, equal to about 38% of Jamaica’s resident population, though the two counts are from different years. Canada’s count of 249,070 was lower than the 309,485 reported in 2016 (the 2021 census changed its ethnic origin question). Other estimates of the total diaspora range from about 1.2 million to 2.6 million depending on whether descendants are included, which is why this article does not give a single figure.
Remittances and the Jamaican Economy
Remittances are the economic counterpart of emigration. The Bank of Jamaica reported US$3.49 billion in 2025, 3.8% higher than the US$3.36 billion of 2024, with the final months of the year offsetting declines caused by Hurricane Melissa. Annual remittances fell between about US$2.9 billion and US$3.5 billion from 2021 to 2024, depending on the series.
| Measure | Figure | Year / Source |
|---|---|---|
| Remittance inflows | US$3.49 billion | 2025, Bank of Jamaica |
| Change from 2024 | +3.8% | 2025 |
| Remittances per resident (derived) | ~US$1,263 | 2025 (US$3.49 billion / 2,764,200) |
| Share of GDP | 16.2% (World Bank-based) to 18% (MPI) | 2024 |
| Share from the United States | ~69% to ~80% | 2025 |
| Other main sources | United Kingdom (12.5% in one month), Canada (8.9%), Cayman Islands (6.9%) | Late 2025 |
The share of GDP differs between sources, 16.2% in one and 18% in another, so the article reports both. The BOJ series also shifts depending on whether it measures personal or total remittances, which is why published annual totals for 2021 to 2024 vary between roughly US$2.9 billion and US$3.5 billion.
An economist quoted in the Jamaica Observer noted that the government does not tax remittances, so the money goes directly to households, and that a one percentage point fall in remittances would remove a material sum from them. Remittances are heavily concentrated in the U.S. corridor, so changes in U.S. immigration enforcement are the main risk to the flow.
Migration and Jamaica’s Workforce
Jamaica has a high working-age share, 73.1% aged 15 to 64 on UN estimates for 2026, and a low youth share of 17.9%. Emigration reduces the number of people in the age group that matters most for the labor force and for future births. The sources reviewed here do not give figures for emigration of specific occupations such as nurses or teachers, so this article does not quantify skilled-worker losses or label the flow a brain drain. What the figures do show is that the people leaving are numerous enough to cancel the whole of natural increase, which means that labor force growth in Jamaica now depends almost entirely on whether migration slows.
Aging and the Population Outlook
Jamaica’s age structure has shifted fast. In 2010, 29.0% of the population was under 15, 63.1% was between 15 and 64, and 7.8% was 65 or older. By 2026, UN-based estimates give 17.9%, 73.1% and 9.0%.
| Age Group | 2010 | 2026 (UN) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 15 | 29.0% | 17.9% | –11.1 points |
| 15 to 64 | 63.1% | 73.1% | +10.0 points |
| 65 and over | 7.8% | 9.0% | +1.2 points |
| Median age | n/a | 33.3 years | n/a |
| Total dependency ratio | n/a | 36.7 per 100 working-age | UN-based |
The dependency ratio is currently low, at 36.7 per 100 people of working age, with 24.5 of that made up of children and about 12.2 of older people (derived). That favorable phase is temporary. The under-15 share has fallen 11 points in sixteen years, and the 65-plus group will grow as the large cohorts now in their working years age. The PIOJ has said Jamaica is in the final stages of the demographic transition, characterized by low fertility and low mortality, with net migration loss, below-replacement fertility and aging all reshaping the structure.
| Comparison, UN 2026 | Jamaica | Barbados | Trinidad and Tobago |
|---|---|---|---|
| Growth rate | –0.16% | +0.03% | +0.10% |
| Change 2026 to 2050 | –13.4% | –6.5% | –7.5% |
| Change 2026 to 2100 | –62.4% | –31.1% | –40.6% |
The UN projects Jamaica to lose 13.4% of its population by 2050 and 62.4% by 2100, a steeper path than either comparison country. The projection assumes fertility edges up toward 1.5 by 2100 but still produces a very small population, because the number of women of childbearing age shrinks. Because UN estimates start about 2.6% above Jamaica’s own, national projections would start from a lower base.
Urbanization and Population Distribution
Jamaica is 60.2% urban on UN estimates for 2025. The 2022 census shows where growth is happening. The Kingston and St Andrew metropolitan area, with 672,904 residents, held 24.3% of the population, and neighboring St Catherine added 26,545 people, a 5.1% rise since 2011, to reach 542,763. Kingston parish itself, with 89,186 residents, has barely changed since 2011 (+0.1%) and is 14% smaller than in 1982.
| Parish | 2011 Census | 2022 Census | Change | Share of 2022 Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Andrew | 573,369 | 583,718 | +1.8% | 21.0% |
| St Catherine | 516,218 | 542,763 | +5.1% | 19.6% |
| Clarendon | 245,103 | 258,643 | +5.5% | 9.3% |
| Manchester | 189,797 | 193,694 | +2.1% | 7.0% |
| St James | 183,811 | 188,656 | +2.6% | 6.8% |
| Kingston | 89,057 | 89,186 | +0.1% | 3.2% |
| Kingston and St Andrew combined | 662,426 | 672,904 | +1.6% | 24.3% |
Kingston and St Andrew together with St Catherine hold 1,215,667 people, or 43.8% of the national total. The pattern, growth in the parishes around Kingston and stagnation in the inner city, fits a country where the metropolitan region is expanding outward rather than adding residents overall. St Catherine’s population has risen 63% since 1982, from 332,674 to 542,763, while Kingston parish has fallen from 104,041 to 89,186. Parish figures for the other eight parishes were not retrieved and are left out.
Jamaica’s Future Demographic Challenge
The numbers describe a country at an inflection point. Natural increase is down to 7,600 a year and is likely to keep shrinking as the population ages. Net migration is already larger than natural increase. Remittances of US$3.49 billion give households a cushion, but the flow depends on a diaspora whose own composition is changing, and on the U.S. corridor that carries up to four fifths of it. For the resident population, the UN’s central projection is a fall of 13.4% by 2050.
What the data cannot say is how much of that decline is fixed. Migration is the most variable component: a change of a few thousand people a year in either direction moves Jamaica between modest growth and steady decline. Fertility at 1.33 is far below replacement and less likely to change quickly. The two tasks the numbers imply, retaining working-age residents and managing an older population with fewer workers per retiree, will both be shaped by decisions about migration, wages and services that sit outside the demographic figures.
Key Findings
- Jamaica’s population grew by just 600 people in 2025, from 2,763,600 to 2,764,200, as natural increase of 7,600 was offset by net migration and other adjustments of roughly negative 7,000.
- The 2022 census counted 2,774,538 people, up only 2.8% from 2011, about 0.24% a year.
- Fertility is 1.33 children per woman in the UN’s 2024 revision, well below replacement, and a reported figure of 1.9 is not consistent with 28,900 births in 2025.
- Remittances reached US$3.49 billion in 2025, about US$1,263 per resident, and equal 16% to 18% of GDP depending on the source.
- About 888,000 Jamaica-born people lived in the United States in 2024, with 160,776 in the UK (2011 census) and 249,070 of Jamaican origin in Canada (2021 census).
- The under-15 share fell from 29.0% in 2010 to 17.9% in 2026, while the 65-plus share rose from 7.8% to 9.0%.
- The UN projects Jamaica’s population to fall 13.4% by 2050 and 62.4% by 2100, a steeper decline than Barbados or Trinidad and Tobago.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. What is Jamaica’s population?
The PIOJ estimated 2,764,200 at the end of 2025, and the 2022 census counted 2,774,538. UN-based estimates are higher, at about 2.83 million for 2026.
2. Is Jamaica’s population growing or shrinking?
It is roughly flat and trending down. The PIOJ recorded growth of 600 people in 2025 (0.0%), and UN estimates show a decline of about 0.07% to 0.16% a year.
3. Why do Jamaicans migrate?
Emigration for work has been established since the 1960s, and large communities in the United States, the United Kingdom and Canada support family-based moves. The sources reviewed do not quantify individual motives, so the answer describes the pattern of the flow.
4. How large is the Jamaican diaspora?
Counts depend on the definition. About 888,000 Jamaica-born people lived in the U.S. in 2024, 160,776 in the UK in 2011, and 249,070 people of Jamaican origin in Canada in 2021. Estimates that include descendants range from about 1.2 million to 2.6 million.
5. How important are remittances to Jamaica?
Very. Remittances reached US$3.49 billion in 2025, about US$1,263 per resident, and equal 16% to 18% of GDP. About 69% to 80% comes from the United States.
6. What is Jamaica’s fertility rate?
The UN puts it at 1.33 for 2026, down from about 3.9 in 1950. A figure of 1.9 has also been cited but is not consistent with the 28,900 births recorded in 2025.
7. How old is Jamaica’s population?
The median age is 33.3 years. Of the population, 17.9% is under 15, 73.1% is 15 to 64, and 9.0% is 65 or older on UN-based 2026 estimates.
8. Where do most Jamaicans live?
Kingston and St Andrew hold 672,904 people (24.3%), and St Catherine has 542,763 (19.6%), together 43.8% of the 2022 census total.
9. Why do Jamaican and UN population figures differ?
The UN’s estimate for 2025 is about 2.6% above the PIOJ’s, and the PIOJ’s own series has been revised. The UN works from modeled migration and fertility, while national figures build on the 2022 census.
10. What will Jamaica’s population be in the future?
The UN projects 2,454,940 in 2050 and 1,066,774 in 2100, declines of 13.4% and 62.4% from 2026.
Sources
- Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ), Economic and Social Survey Jamaica 2025, as reported by the Jamaica Observer and Caribbean National Weekly (July 2026); earlier edition as reported by the Jamaica Observer (August 2025)
- Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN), 2011 Census of Population and Housing; 2022 census results (via CityPopulation.de and national sources)
- United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2024 Revision (via Worldometer, PopulationPyramids.org, GeoRank and Database.Earth)
- Bank of Jamaica remittance data, as reported by NY Carib News, the Jamaica Gleaner and Trading Economics; Jamaica Observer, “Remittance fallout?” (2025)
- Migration Policy Institute, Caribbean Immigrants in the United States (2024 data)
- Statistics Canada, 2021 Census of Population, ethnic or cultural origin; UK 2011 Census country-of-birth data, as summarized in “British Jamaicans”
- UNFPA Caribbean, launch of the 2025 State of World Population report in Jamaica
- La Caribeña News summary of IDB and IFAD remittance reporting (2026)
- Wikipedia, Demographics of Jamaica and Parishes of Jamaica (cross-referenced to STATIN)
