The United Kingdom has undergone one of the most significant demographic transformations in its modern history over the past three decades. What was once an overwhelmingly White British population has steadily diversified, shaped by post-war Commonwealth migration, European Union free movement before Brexit, refugee resettlement, and international student and work visa programs.
The UK Census, conducted every ten years, remains the most authoritative source of ethnicity data. Scotland and Northern Ireland run their own census processes, while England and Wales are surveyed jointly by the Office for National Statistics. Because England and Wales account for roughly 89 percent of the total UK population, the England and Wales Census is widely used as the benchmark for national ethnic composition trends, and it forms the core dataset for this article.
Key facts about the current UK ethnic composition include the following.
- The total population of England and Wales reached approximately 59.6 million at the 2021 Census.
- White people made up 81.7 percent of the population, down from 86.0 percent in 2011.
- People identifying as White British specifically fell to 74.4 percent, down from 80.5 percent in 2011 and 87.5 percent in 2001.
- Asian, Asian British, or Asian Welsh people formed the second largest group at 9.3 percent, up from 7.5 percent in 2011.
- Black, Black British, Black Welsh, Caribbean, or African people accounted for 4.0 percent of the population.
- People of Mixed or multiple ethnic groups made up 2.9 percent.
- People identifying with another ethnic group not listed above reached 2.1 percent, more than doubling since 2011.
Historical Trends in the UK Population by Ethnicity
Ethnicity has only been formally recorded in the England and Wales Census since 1991. Before that year, ethnic origin data relied on indirect measures such as country of birth and parental birthplace. The 1991 Census introduced the first standardized ethnicity question, giving demographers a consistent baseline against which to measure subsequent change.
Since then, three clear patterns have defined the UK ethnic landscape.
- A steady, accelerating decline in the White British share of the population, dropping from close to 94 percent in 1991 to under 75 percent by 2021.
- Consistent growth in the Asian population, driven initially by settlement from India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, and more recently by Chinese, and broader South and East Asian migration and student inflows.
- Rapid recent growth in the Mixed and Other ethnic categories, reflecting both intermarriage across ethnic lines and growing numbers of people who do not identify with any of the traditional census categories.
Past Trends (1991 to 2021)
| Year | Total Population (England and Wales) | White (%) | White British (%) | Asian (%) | Black (%) | Mixed (%) | Other (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1991 | 49.9 million | 94.1% | N/A | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 1.1% |
| 2001 | 52.4 million | 91.3% | 87.5% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.9% |
| 2011 | 56.1 million | 86.0% | 80.5% | 7.5% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.0% |
| 2021 | 59.6 million | 81.7% | 74.4% | 9.3% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.1% |
Note that the 1991 Census did not separately capture White British as a distinct write-in category in the way later censuses did, so that figure is marked as not applicable. Figures are rounded and sourced from the Office for National Statistics Census releases.
UK Population by Ethnicity Over the Last 10 Years
The decade between the 2011 and 2021 Censuses saw the fastest rate of ethnic diversification recorded in England and Wales to date. While the Census itself only captures snapshots once every ten years, the Annual Population Survey and mid-year population estimates allow demographers to interpolate the pace of change across the intervening years with reasonable confidence.
Several forces accelerated this shift.
- Free movement of people under European Union membership through 2020 boosted the White Other category substantially, particularly from Poland, Romania, and other Central and Eastern European states.
- Post Brexit immigration policy shifted the balance of new arrivals toward non-EU countries, particularly India, Nigeria, Pakistan, China, and Hong Kong, following the introduction of new visa routes.
- Natural population growth among established minority communities, who on average have a younger age profile and higher fertility rates than the White British population, added further momentum.
- The Hong Kong British National Overseas visa route, launched in 2021, brought a sustained wave of arrivals from Hong Kong through the middle of the decade.
Last 10 Years (2016 to 2025, Interpolated Estimates)
| Year | White (%) | White British (%) | Asian (%) | Black (%) | Mixed (%) | Other (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 84.6% | 78.8% | 8.2% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.4% |
| 2017 | 84.1% | 78.2% | 8.4% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.5% |
| 2018 | 83.7% | 77.6% | 8.6% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.6% |
| 2019 | 83.2% | 77.0% | 8.8% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.7% |
| 2020 | 82.7% | 76.3% | 9.0% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.8% |
| 2021 | 81.7% | 74.4% | 9.3% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.1% |
| 2022 | 81.1% | 73.6% | 9.6% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.3% |
| 2023 | 80.5% | 72.8% | 9.9% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.5% |
| 2024 | 79.9% | 72.0% | 10.2% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.7% |
| 2025 | 79.3% | 71.2% | 10.5% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.9% |
These mid-decade years are estimated by interpolating between confirmed census years and extending the observed 2011 to 2021 trend line forward. They should be treated as informed approximations rather than official counts, since the next confirmed nationwide figures will only arrive with the 2031 Census.
Future Projections for the UK Population by Ethnicity
Because the Office for National Statistics does not publish official national population projections broken down by ethnic group, most forward-looking estimates come from academic demographers who model fertility, mortality, and migration assumptions by ethnic category.
The most widely cited work in this field comes from Professor Philip Rees and colleagues at the University of Leeds, whose projections suggest that people from ethnic minority backgrounds could make up close to 30 percent of the UK population by around 2050, rising to closer to half of the population in England’s largest cities.
Projection models vary considerably depending on the migration assumptions used. Lower migration scenarios produce a slower pace of change, while higher migration scenarios accelerate it. The table below presents a central, trend continuation scenario based on extending the 2001 to 2021 rate of change, which sits between the more conservative and more aggressive published projections.
Future Projections (2031 to 2051)
| Year | White (%) | White British (%) | Asian (%) | Black (%) | Mixed (%) | Other (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2031 | 76.0% | 66.5% | 12.0% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.6% |
| 2041 | 70.5% | 59.0% | 14.5% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 3.0% |
| 2051 | 65.0% | 52.0% | 17.0% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 3.5% |
These figures are illustrative projections built from published academic trend models and should not be read as government forecasts. They are useful for understanding the general direction and pace of change rather than as precise predictions, since actual outcomes will depend heavily on future immigration policy, birth rates, and international events that cannot be foreseen with certainty.
Combined Trends: Past, Current, and Future Outlook (1991 to 2051)
| Year | Total Population | White (%) | White British (%) | Asian (%) | Black (%) | Mixed (%) | Other (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1991 | 49.9 million | 94.1% | N/A | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 1.1% |
| 2001 | 52.4 million | 91.3% | 87.5% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.9% |
| 2011 | 56.1 million | 86.0% | 80.5% | 7.5% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.0% |
| 2021 | 59.6 million | 81.7% | 74.4% | 9.3% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.1% |
| 2031 (Projected) | 62.5 million | 76.0% | 66.5% | 12.0% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.6% |
| 2041 (Projected) | 65.0 million | 70.5% | 59.0% | 14.5% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 3.0% |
| 2051 (Projected) | 67.5 million | 65.0% | 52.0% | 17.0% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 3.5% |
Regional Variation Across the UK
National averages mask enormous regional differences. Ethnic diversity in the UK is heavily concentrated in major urban centers, while large parts of the country remain overwhelmingly White British.
- London is the most ethnically diverse region, with only 36.8 percent of residents identifying as White British in 2021, and 46.2 percent identifying with an Asian, Black, Mixed, or Other ethnic group.
- The West Midlands has the highest Asian population share outside London, at 13.3 percent, reflecting long-established communities in Birmingham and surrounding boroughs.
- The North East and Wales recorded the highest White British shares in 2021, both at 90.6 percent, making them the least ethnically diverse regions of England and Wales.
- Over 30 percent of the combined England and Wales population lives in London and the South East, meaning these two regions carry disproportionate weight in national ethnicity statistics.
- Black populations are heavily concentrated in London, where 49.3 percent of the Black population of England and Wales resides.
Ethnic Breakdown by Specific Group
Beyond the five high-level categories, the Census captures 19 detailed ethnic groups. Some of the fastest-growing detailed categories between 2011 and 2021 included the following.
- The White Other category grew from 4.4 percent to 6.2 percent, the largest percentage point increase of any group, driven substantially by Polish and Romanian-born residents.
- The Indian ethnic group remained the largest single minority category at 3.1 percent of the population.
- The Any Other Ethnic Background category nearly tripled from 333,100 people in 2011 to 923,800 people in 2021.
- The Chinese ethnic group reached 0.7 percent of the population, boosted by student migration and, more recently, Hong Kong resettlement.
- The Arab ethnic group reached 0.6 percent of the population.
Drivers Behind the Shifting Ethnic Composition
Several structural factors explain why the UK ethnic profile has changed so quickly over the past three decades and why demographers expect the trend to continue.
- International migration. Net migration has consistently added several hundred thousand people to the UK population annually in recent years, with a growing share arriving from non-European countries following Brexit.
- Age structure differences. Ethnic minority populations in the UK skew younger on average than the White British population, which is more heavily weighted toward older age brackets. Younger populations naturally contribute more births relative to their size.
- Fertility rate differences. Some minority ethnic groups have historically recorded higher total fertility rates than the White British population, although these gaps tend to narrow across generations as families settle into UK life.
- Second-generation growth. Children born in the UK to immigrant parents are counted within minority ethnic categories, meaning population growth within these groups is now increasingly driven by births within the UK rather than new arrivals.
- Changing self-identification: Some of the recorded shifts reflect people choosing different write-in responses between censuses rather than genuine population change, particularly within the Mixed and Other categories.
Conclusion
UK population by ethnicity has changed more in the past thirty years than in any prior period of modern British history. The White British share of the population has fallen by roughly 13 percentage points since 2001, while Asian, Black, Mixed, and Other categories have all grown substantially.
Interim estimates suggest this pace has not slowed since the 2021 Census, and most demographic projections point toward continued diversification through the middle of the century, though the exact scale will depend on future migration policy, fertility patterns, and economic conditions. The 2031 Census will provide the next official confirmation of how accurate these projections prove to be.
Frequently Asked Questions
What percentage of the UK population is White British?
According to the 2021 Census, 74.4 percent of the England and Wales population identified as White British, down from 80.5 percent in 2011 and 87.5 percent in 2001.
Which is the largest ethnic minority group in the UK?
Asian, Asian British, or Asian Welsh people form the largest ethnic minority category, at 9.3 percent of the England and Wales population in 2021, with Indian the single largest detailed group within that category.
Will White British people become a minority in the UK?
Academic projections differ widely depending on migration assumptions. Some researchers project the White British share could fall below 50 percent sometime between the 2060s and 2080s if current trends continue, though this depends heavily on future immigration and fertility patterns that are inherently uncertain.
Is the UK Census the most reliable source for ethnicity data?
Yes, the Census remains the gold standard because it aims to survey the entire population rather than a sample, though it only occurs once every ten years, which is why interim years rely on estimates.
How does London compare to the rest of the UK for ethnic diversity?
London is by far the most ethnically diverse region, with less than 37 percent of residents identifying as White British in 2021, compared with over 90 percent in the North East and Wales.
