The fertility rate in the United States has undergone one of the most significant demographic shifts of the past century. From the post-war baby boom of the 1950s and 1960s to the record-low birth levels recorded in the 2020s, the total fertility rate (TFR), defined as the average number of children a woman is expected to have over her lifetime, tells the story of how American family formation has changed across generations.
This article reviews the historical trajectory of US fertility, the fertility patterns of the last ten years, and the projections that federal agencies expect through the middle of the century. Verified data comes from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), the US Census Bureau, and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
What Is the Total Fertility Rate and Why Does It Matter
The total fertility rate estimates the number of children a woman would have during her lifetime if she experienced the age-specific birth rates observed in a given year. A TFR of 2.1 is generally considered the replacement level, the rate needed to keep a population stable over time without relying on immigration.
The United States has not sustained replacement-level fertility for any extended period since the early 1970s. Understanding this trend requires looking separately at the past, the present, and the projected future.
Historical Fertility Trends in the United States (Past Trends Table)
The table below summarizes the long-term arc of US fertility from the baby boom era through the years leading up to the last decade. Figures are rounded to two decimal places and reflect the number of births per woman.
| Year | Total Fertility Rate | Historical Context |
|---|---|---|
| 1960 | 3.65 | Peak of the post-war baby boom |
| 1970 | 2.48 | Decline begins as the baby boom ends |
| 1976 | 1.70 | Record low of the baby bust period |
| 1980 | 1.84 | Stabilization following the 1970s decline |
| 1990 | 2.08 | Modest recovery, near replacement level |
| 2000 | 2.06 | Fertility holds steady around replacement level |
| 2007 | 2.12 | Most recent year at replacement level, pre-recession peak |
| 2010 | 1.93 | Decline following the Great Recession |
Key takeaways from the historical data:
- The baby boom (1946 to 1964) produced the highest sustained fertility rates in modern US history, with the rate nearly doubling from pre-war levels.
- The subsequent baby bust, driven by the birth control pill, changing gender roles, and delayed marriage, cut the fertility rate almost in half within about 15 years.
- Fertility briefly returned to the replacement level of roughly 2.1 in 2007, just before the Great Recession triggered a renewed and lasting decline.
- Since 2007, the United States has not returned to replacement-level fertility.
Fertility Trends in the Last 10 Years (2015 to 2024)
The most recent decade has been marked by a steady, near-uninterrupted decline in fertility, interrupted only briefly by small fluctuations. The table below presents the last ten years of available data.
| Year | Total Fertility Rate | Number of Births | Year-over-Year Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 1.84 | 3,978,497 | Continued decline from the 2007 peak |
| 2016 | 1.82 | 3,945,875 | Decline continues |
| 2017 | 1.77 | 3,855,500 | Notable drop |
| 2018 | 1.73 | 3,791,712 | New record low at the time |
| 2019 | 1.71 | 3,747,540 | Decline continues pre-pandemic |
| 2020 | 1.64 | 3,613,647 | Sharp pandemic-era decline |
| 2021 | 1.66 | 3,659,289 | Slight, short-lived uptick |
| 2022 | 1.67 | 3,667,758 | Essentially flat versus 2021 |
| 2023 | 1.62 | 3,596,017 | Rate falls again, births decline 2 percent |
| 2024 | 1.63 | 3,628,934 | Births rise 1 percent, GFR still declines |
Notes on the last decade:
- The general fertility rate (births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44) fell to 53.8 in 2024, down 22 percent from the 2007 peak.
- The number of births in 2024 rose slightly to 3,628,934, a 1 percent increase over 2023, though this reflects population changes as much as a shift in underlying fertility behavior.
- Birth rates for women aged 15 to 34 have continued to decline, while rates for women aged 40 to 44 have risen almost continuously since 1985.
- Teen birth rates reached another record low in 2024, falling to 12.6 births per 1,000 females aged 15 to 19.
Future Fertility Projections for the United States
Long-range projections from the CBO and the Census Bureau agree that US fertility is unlikely to rebound to replacement level in the coming decades. Both agencies expect the total fertility rate to remain near 1.6 through the middle of the century, though their methods and assumptions differ slightly.
| Year | CBO Projected TFR | Census Bureau Projected TFR | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.62 | 1.63 | Baseline year for current projections |
| 2033 | 1.61 (est.) | 1.62 | Census Bureau midpoint estimate |
| 2035 | 1.60 | 1.61 (est.) | CBO projects continued flattening |
| 2050 | 1.60 (est.) | 1.60 | Long-term stabilization near current lows |
| 2055 | 1.60 | 1.60 (est.) | End of CBO projection horizon |
Additional context on the projections:
- The CBO projects that fertility among women under 30 will keep falling, from 0.79 births per woman in 2025 to 0.62 by 2055, while fertility among women 30 and older is projected to rise slightly as childbearing continues to shift to later ages.
- The Census Bureau’s 2023 national population projections assume continued low fertility, contributing to a population that is expected to grow more slowly and rely increasingly on immigration.
- Under the Census Bureau’s main series, deaths are projected to exceed births nationally by around 2038, meaning immigration would become the primary driver of population growth from that point forward.
- Some Social Security Administration projections assume a fertility recovery to around 1.90 by 2036, illustrating how much projections can diverge depending on underlying assumptions.
Combined Overview: Past, Current, and Future US Fertility (1960 to 2055)
The table below consolidates the full arc of US fertility data, from the baby boom peak through the projected trends of the 2050s, into a single reference table.
| Period | Year | Total Fertility Rate | Phase |
|---|---|---|---|
| Past | 1960 | 3.65 | Baby boom peak |
| Past | 1970 | 2.48 | Baby bust begins |
| Past | 1980 | 1.84 | Post baby bust stabilization |
| Past | 1990 | 2.08 | Near replacement recovery |
| Past | 2000 | 2.06 | Replacement level plateau |
| Past | 2007 | 2.12 | Most recent replacement level year |
| Past | 2010 | 1.93 | Post-recession decline |
| Recent | 2015 | 1.84 | Continued gradual decline |
| Recent | 2018 | 1.73 | New record low at the time |
| Recent | 2020 | 1.64 | Pandemic era low |
| Current | 2023 | 1.62 | Most recent finalized CDC data |
| Current | 2024 | 1.63 | Latest available data, births rise slightly |
| Future | 2025 | 1.62 to 1.63 | Projection baseline year |
| Future | 2035 | 1.60 to 1.61 | Projected continued flattening |
| Future | 2050 | 1.60 | Long-term projected stabilization |
| Future | 2055 | 1.60 | End of CBO projection horizon |
This combined view shows that the United States has moved from a fertility rate above 3.6 children per woman in 1960 to a rate hovering near 1.6 children per woman today, with little indication of a reversal expected before 2055.
Key Drivers Behind Declining US Fertility
Demographers and public health researchers point to several overlapping factors behind the long-term decline:
- Rising educational attainment and labor force participation among women which has shifted the typical age of first childbirth later into adulthood.
- Increased access to and use of effective contraception since the 1960s.
- Higher costs associated with housing, child care, and higher education, which influence family size decisions.
- A sharp rise in childlessness among women in their early twenties, with roughly 85 percent of women aged 20 to 24 not yet having had a child in 2024, up from about 75 percent a decade earlier.
- Delayed marriage and a general shift toward smaller family size as a cultural and economic norm.
- Economic uncertainty follows major downturns, including the 1970s energy crisis, the Great Recession, and the disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Regional and Demographic Variations
Fertility patterns are not uniform across the country or across population groups:
- States such as Utah, Idaho, and South Dakota have historically maintained fertility rates above the national average, while states such as California, Oregon, and several Northeastern states tend to report lower rates.
- No major racial or ethnic group in the United States currently sustains fertility at replacement level among the US-born population.
- Fertility among foreign-born women tends to be somewhat higher than among US-born women, meaning immigration plays a role not only in population growth directly but also in supporting overall birth numbers.
- Mean age at first birth has risen steadily, reaching 27.6 years in 2024, reflecting the broader trend of delayed childbearing.
Economic and Social Implications of Low Fertility
Sustained below replacement fertility has consequences that extend well beyond annual birth statistics:
- An aging population structure, with the share of Americans aged 65 and older projected to overtake the share under 18 by around 2029 in the Census Bureau’s main projection series.
- Long-term pressure on programs such as Social Security and Medicare, which rely on a sufficient working-age population relative to retirees.
- Slower labor force growth, which can affect overall economic output unless offset by higher productivity or immigration.
- Reduced school enrollment and shifting demand for child-related goods and services over time.
- Greater reliance on immigration as a source of population growth, since natural increase (births minus deaths) is expected to turn negative nationally within the coming decades.
Conclusion
US fertility has traveled a long arc, from the extraordinary highs of the baby boom era to the historic lows recorded in the past decade. The data from the CDC, the Census Bureau, and the CBO point toward a consistent conclusion: American fertility is unlikely to return to replacement level in the foreseeable future, and the country’s demographic future will increasingly depend on immigration alongside the natural balance of births and deaths. Tracking these trends over time remains essential for understanding the future shape of the US labor force, entitlement programs, and overall population structure.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current fertility rate in the United States? The most recent finalized data from the CDC shows a total fertility rate of 1.63 in 2024, with 3,628,934 births registered that year.
When did the US fertility rate last reach replacement level? The United States last recorded a total fertility rate at replacement level, approximately 2.1 children per woman, in 2007.
Is the US fertility rate expected to recover? Most federal projections, including those from the CBO and the Census Bureau, expect the fertility rate to remain near 1.6 through at least the 2050s, with no significant recovery built into the main projection scenarios.
Why has the US fertility rate declined so sharply since 2007? Economic disruption from the Great Recession, rising costs of raising children, delayed marriage and childbearing, and a rise in childlessness among younger women are among the most cited factors.
How does immigration affect the US population growth, given low fertility? Because deaths are projected to exceed births nationally within the next couple of decades, immigration is expected to become the primary driver of US population growth going forward.
